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Prior was +4405K Gasoline -2536K vs -670K expected Prior was +688K Distillates -2228K vs -1570K expected Prior was -1530K API data from late yesterday: Crude +4200K Gasoline -3200K Distillates -500K WTI was trading at $81.63 ahead of the report after falling as low as $79.62 earlier on the Russian report of a ceasefire in Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
In a post yesterday , I highlighted the importance of the USDCHF swing area extending down to 0.8009, along with the rising 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) and the 50% retracement near 0.8000. The low today reached 0.8007—between those key levels and just above the 100-hour moving average. Buyers leaned against that support cluster and have since pushed the price steadily…
Scotiabank published its NielsenIQ Omnishopper and the headline number is a deceleration: consumer spending growth ran at +6.1% y/y in the four weeks to July 11. That's down from +8.1% in May and +7.1% in June. The trailing 12-week figure dipped to +6.4% from +7.1% a month ago. They say it's a "slight negative," with caution heading into the September reporting season. It's certainly not a…
Meta has reached a settlement with the California attorney general and other states in a case alleging that its platforms harmed children. The states had filed claims against Meta’s at roughly $200 billion (and not realistic). The settlement caps Meta’s payments to the states at $16.68 billion—well below either figure and clearly better than market expectations. The payments are over 10 years as…
Meta is truly a vilanous company. Just this month, CEO Mark Zuckerberg was writing about all the jobs AI would create. Meanwhile, we learned in a Reuters report today that he was contemplating eliminating 60% of Meta's workforce this year. In any case, he will need the savings as Meta will pay $16.7 billion to 29 states as part of an agreement today, just before jury selection was set to begin in…
Prior was +0.5% Ex transport +0.4% vs +0.8% exp Ex defense +1.3% vs +0.3% prior Non-defense capital goods ex air +0.2% vs +0.9% exp This is a softer report overall but the US dollar has been strengthening on the slightly-hotter PCE report released at the same time. The euro was last down 21 pips on the day to 1.1653. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision 1.5% vs 1.5% estimate Consumer Spending 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminary estimate GDP Deflator 6.4% vs 6.2% estimate Core PCE YoY 3.6% vs 3.4% estimate PCE Prices YoY 5.3% vs 5.1% estimate PCE ex food energy and housing Q2 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminary PCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 3.7% vs 3.4% preliminary Other…
GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision x.x% vs 1.5% estimate Consumer Spending x.x% vs 3.2% preliminary estimate GDP Deflator x.x% vs 6.2% estimate Core PCE YoY x.x% vs 3.4% estimate PCE Prices YoY x.x% vs 5.1% estimate PCE ex food energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.2% preliminary PCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.4% preliminary This…
Prior was 3.3% Headline y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (3.7% prior) Headline m/m +0.2% vs +0.1% expected (-0.1% prior) Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior +0.1% PCE services excluding energy and housing % vs +0.1% prior Consumer spending and income for July: Personal income +0.4% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.1% expected. Prior…
The US dollar is mixed as North American traders enter for the day. The greenback is trading higher against the EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and NZD, while moving lower against the JPY and AUD. The largest moves are against the NZD and CHF. The NZDUSD is down -0.35% (higher USD), while the USDCHF is up +0.34% (also higher USD). The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies vs the greenback, with the…
Nasdaq and S&P indices are settling between risk/bias defining MAs as the week comes to a close Baker Hughes rig count -5 at 588 European stocks rebound Friday, but weekly losses dominate Brazil's Lula and US Pres. Trump held phone call on Friday. Gold surges and breaks away from its 200 day MA SNB Tschudin: Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations Trump: Gets rid of 26.4%…
Nasdaq and S&P indices are settling between risk/bias defining MAs as the week comes to a close Baker Hughes rig count -5 at 588 European stocks rebound Friday, but weekly losses dominate Brazil's Lula and US Pres. Trump held phone call on Friday. Gold surges and breaks away from its 200 day MA SNB Tschudin: Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations Trump: Gets rid of 26.4%…
Both the Nasdaq and S&P indices are settling with nearly identical gains of around 0.45% on the day. From a technical perspective, both are also ending the week caught between key shorter-term moving averages — below their 100-hour moving averages on the topside, but above their 200-hour moving averages on the downside. That sets up clearly defined technical goalposts heading into next week's…
The USDJPY has set the technical guardrails for the rest of today and heading into next week. Looking at the hourly chart, the low for the day stalled just ahead of the 200-day moving average, currently at 158.313. The low reached 158.35 before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. That rebound has taken USDJPY back toward today's high and yesterday's high, where sellers have leaned…
The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies against the USD today, rising 0.86% and pushing AUDUSD to its highest level since early June. The pair has reached a high of 0.7178, with the next key upside target coming in at the swing area between 0.71993 and 0.7200 (see video and the chart below). Looking at the price action this week, AUDUSD traded up and down through the first half of the…
The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows: Crude oil rigs -3 at 452 Natural Gas rigs -1 at 127 Total rigs -5 at 588 For the year: Oil was 412 Natural Gas was at 122 Total rigs was at 539. Crude oil is trading at $87. That's up $0.17 on the day. For the trading week, the price is up $4.60. Looking at the daily chart, the high-priced today reached $87.51. That is just below the 100 day moving average…
European shares are closing mostly higher on Friday, but the gains were not enough to erase losses for most of the major indices this week. The broader STOXX 600 is also on pace for a weekly decline as elevated bond yields and oil prices continue to weigh on sentiment. European closing levels: German DAX, +0.59% at 26,136.57 France's CAC, +0.37% at 8,484.44 UK's FTSE 100, +0.64% at 10,816.57…
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call Friday, with trade and tariffs among the issues discussed. According to the Brazilian government: Lula and Trump held a phone call on Friday, discussing both the bilateral relationship and the broader global agenda. Lula reaffirmed the need for negotiations over tariffs between Brazil and the United…
The gold buyers raced higher earlier this week, helped by the broader decline in the U.S. dollar. The move carried the price away from its 100-day moving average at $4,391.78 and toward the 200-day moving average at $4,501.13. Yesterday, gold traded above and below the 200-day moving average as buyers and sellers battled for control. Today, however, the buyers have made a stronger push. With gold…
SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin is commenting on the inflation and interest-rate outlook, with the central bank keeping the door open to negative rates if needed. At the same time, she cautions against interpreting the SNB’s inflation forecasts as a signal that rates will remain unchanged over the forecast horizon. Her key comments: Artificial intelligence can increase inflation in the…
President Trump is looking to solve another problem - the rising cost of beef prices. He is solving the problem by getting rid of a tariff. Trump in a TruthSocial post said: Beef prices have moved sharply higher mainly because the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking for years, leaving fewer cattle available for beef production just as consumer demand has remained strong. USDA says the herd is now…
Prior month -15.9 Flash estimate for August -15.5 versus -16.3 estimate Every month, the Directorate-GeneralEconomic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission releases the flash CCI for the EU andeuro-area aggregates, using the data available on the cut-off date. The final Consumer Survey results are thenpublished as part of the full Business and Consumer Survey release at the…
We're seeing a return back to the Wednesday moves as traders are continuing to weigh the US Treasury decision to double long-term debt buybacks this week. While there is a good argument that the relief bought may be a short-term solution, that is not to say that the signaling will be so quickly undone. Bessent doubled down with some verbal intervention yesterday and that continues to reaffirm…
The first thing any trader should learn is that markets move on expectations. It doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, prices will still move based on the prevailing context and expectations about the future. If something changes those expectations, markets will just reprice to reflect the new information. There's also something called reflexivity, where market's thoughts and beliefs can turn…
Prior 52.1 Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 52.2 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK economy picked up a bit more pace in August, adding to signs that we should see solid economic growth of around 0.3% in the third quarter. The expansion is being helped by sunny weather and tech…
August flash services PMI 51.7 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.7 August flash manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expected Prior 51.9 August flash composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.0 After the misses from France and Germany, this is a bit of a surprise - especially the services sector estimate. The pace of expansion in the services sector was unchanged from July but comes in better than what we…
ECB policymaker Mārtiņš Kazāks said inflation expectations remain anchored close to the ECB's target, a sign that households, businesses, and financial markets continue to have confidence in the central bank's commitment to price stability. He also highlighted that wage growth is gradually slowing, suggesting that one of the key domestic drivers of inflationary pressure may continue to moderate in…
The award-winning multi-asset broker marks the start of the second season with a bespoke fan promotion. HFM , the award-winning multi-asset broker and Official Partner of Arsenal Football Club, proudly marks the beginning of the 2026/27 football season and the second season of its partnership with one of the world's most iconic clubs. Following a remarkable campaign that saw Arsenal crowned…
Q3 earnings sentiment turns defensive as Walmart deepens the warning Q3 earnings reactions have shifted into a more defensive phase. Walmart’s roughly 9% decline, almost twice its expected earnings move, is the clearest new warning. Strong reactions in Deere and Ross Stores show that this remains a selective stock-picker’s market, not a broad earnings panic. Key takeaways for stock investors and…
Prior 52.2 Services PMI 48.5 vs 50.1 expected Prior 49.8 Composite PMI 51.0 vs 51.3 expected Prior 51.3 Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "The recovery in the manufacturing sector has regained momentum, after it showed signs of stalling in the second quarter. Output, new orders and export sales have all risen at their quickest rates since…
August flash services PMI 48.4 vs 49.8 expected Prior 49.6 August flash manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.8 August flash composite PMI 48.8 vs 49.5 expected Prior 49.4 The French private sector economy remains weak in August, with another contraction seen in overall business activity. This once again continues to reaffirm that the French economy remains on track for yet another…
Key takeaways for stock investors Sector rotation happens when investors move money from one part of the stock market to another. Recent signals suggest Consumer Staples may be entering early accumulation, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary are cooling off. Price alone is not enough. Investors should also examine fund flows, professional positioning, relative performance and the reason…
The dollar continues to keep in a vulnerable spot after the US Treasury announcement yesterday, with traders still digesting and weighing up the impact of it all. While we're not seeing the greenback fall off that much more so far this session, EUR/USD is one that is looking to keep the run going at least. The currency pair is up a little over 0.1% to 1.1690 levels now, its highest in over three…
Key takeaways for investors and traders today Treasury buybacks: Lower bond yields are supporting technology and other growth assets. Semiconductor test: SK Hynix and Samsung are rebounding sharply, but U.S. chip stocks still need to confirm the recovery. Moderna re-rating: MRNA’s 177% surge reflects major new clinical information, not merely a sector rebound. Crypto participation: Bitcoin is…
From overnight: Trump vows crushing new economic operation against Iran, warns allies The threat by Trump pretty much underscores that we are still nowhere near any deal between the two sides. And after trying to brute force his way to getting Iran to concede, Trump is now having to find a different way of achieving that goal. But considering how US sanctions have not worked in the past, I'm not…
July producer prices +1.1% vs +0.7% m/m expected Prior -0.3% July producer prices +3.0% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +1.8% German producer prices continue to move up again in July but owes much to another jump in energy prices. Of note, energy prices rose by 3.4% in July compared to the month before with prices for petroleum products in particular seen 6.6% higher than in June. That contributed…
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance, so I wouldn't attach too much impact on them for the day. That being said, we could still see the expiries limit any downside price extensions in the session ahead. That as traders are still digesting and figuring…
In case you missed it: US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities That was the big announcement that has gotten markets buzzing again this week. Essentially, the US Treasury is doubling the size of buybacks at the long-end of the curve. So, that adds more liquidity i.e. supply into the market after having seen 30-year yields surge to its…
Nasdaq futures are testing the upper boundary of the descending channel that has contained price since June. With NQ near 29,616, the key question is whether the 29,500-29,600 area becomes support or whether price falls back inside the channel. Key takeaways for Nasdaq traders Constructive scenario: NQ holds above the channel and resumes higher. Main risk: A daily close back inside the channel…
The big announcement from yesterday, in case you missed it: US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities That pretty much overshadowed the FOMC minutes and is arguably going to stick as the biggest headline in markets this week. Essentially, Bessent is announcing that they will at least double buybacks on the long-end on the curve to at…
Key lessons for gold and Bitcoin investors A Treasury buyback is not free money: The government repurchases older bonds, usually while continuing to issue new debt. Buybacks can calm markets: They add demand and liquidity to parts of the Treasury market, which can pull bond yields lower. This was not the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing: The Treasury is managing government debt, not…
SK Hynix swap costs, which spiked to 1000bp in June, now said to halve Run on banks feared as concern rises over government seizing deposits to fund war Australia's jobless rate climbs to a near four year high in July PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7808 (vs. estimate at 6.7196) Australian July 2026 jobs report: Unemployment rate 4.5% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%) China's 5 year and 1 year…
US Treasury Statement The U.S. Treasury announced today that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The change will apply beginning September 9, 2026. The announcement comes at a time when long-dated Treasury yields have been under heavy…
RBI Meeting Minutes The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its August 3–5, 2026 meeting, while retaining a neutral stance. Despite the unanimous decision, the minutes show differences in how members assess the inflation risks ahead. The common view is that India’s economy remains resilient despite geopolitical…
Headlines: UK headline inflation picks up in July, core prices hold steady Euro area inflation confirmed to nudge up a little in July FOMC meeting minutes in focus in the day ahead ECB policymaker Rehn says no clear signs of second-round effects just yet Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Critical Crypto Chart Between $64K and $65K Markets: WTI crude oil +0.8% to $85.60 Gold +0.8% to $4,369 JPY leads,…
Gold is seeing a modest bounce back up in European morning trade, after falling to around $4,335 at the tail end of Asia trading. The past few hours is seeing gold push back up to around $4,367 currently but buyers were dealt a bit of a blow in trading yesterday. That after seeing price fall back below both the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages: In seeing that break, the…
July final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% July final core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% This just confirms that inflation pressures in the euro area did pick up a little in July, keeping ECB policymakers on their toes ahead of the September decision next month. The breakdown on headline inflation contribution is as such: Services +1.55% Energy +0.94% Non-energy industrial…
After Fed chair Warsh's shift in stance on forward guidance in response to the central bank's reaction function, the FOMC meeting minutes will arguably take on more importance than it did before. Warsh didn't offer much of anything in kicking the can down the road. As such, a closer look at the discussions during the meeting and what key triggers may point to another rate hike will be deeply…
The wage growth and wage outlook have remained moderate so far No clear signs of second-round effects Keeping inflation expectations anchored will be essential to ensure this remains the case There's nothing major from his remarks here. The ECB still looks poised to act again in September to better position themselves for further rate hikes if needed, should second-round effects start to…
July CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y expected Prior +2.6% July core CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The headline figure is in-line with estimates but core annual inflation is seen holding steady in July at 2.6%, as it was back in June. As mentioned in the preview, the rise in energy prices is what mostly contributed to the jump in headline annual inflation. The rise in prices comes after a…
