RECAP: CRYPTO DEAD?

• Bitcoin Rainbow Chart - Bottom Fell Out

• Last Optimist Leaving the Room

• 63K is the new 42K

• Another Hardware Wallet Breach

• Ledger CEO…. No Such Thing as Total Safety

• Tom Lee Bitmine Buying

• Bessent - USA Crypto Capital of World

• Solana Still Dominates Tokenized Stocks

Today is a different story, but we have to tackle the elephant in the room.

It is Monday, which is the day we talk about crypto and related topics. Today’s story is called “Is Crypto Dead?”

We will look at a lot of data to see if there is any life in it, identify any bottom signals, and evaluate the overall sentiment.

Crypto volume has hit a three-year low, and this is the daily exchange volume based on a seven-day moving average.

I believe it was Saylor who said, “Volatility is vitality.” When there is no volatility, there is no VIX and no excitement. Everything gets boring, the casino gets boring, and the gamblers go elsewhere. This is basically what has happened.

Looking at the data, we are down to roughly $15 billion in seven-day average volume, which is a three-year trough. It is down 33% month-over-month. I always say summer sucks, and August is the worst, so that could be part of it too. However, year-over-year, it is down 80%.

The volume is simply gone. This is really bad for companies that depend on volume and fees, like Bitcoin miners and crypto exchanges like Coinbase. They are probably getting completely murdered right now.

Bitcoin transaction fees are also at a three-year low.

Elvis has literally left the building. It is a very tough time for the miners out there.

As if things could not get worse, looking at the Bitcoin rainbow chart, we literally fell out of the bottom of the rainbow.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen out of the rainbow, so it is way beyond fire-sale prices compared to where it is supposed to be. This Bitcoin rainbow chart has been very reliable in the past, so watch this space carefully.

It makes you wonder what the heck is happening, as this is not very positive.

People should be happy in the summer, but they are not.

The chatter everywhere is negative. Social volume shows a sharp rise in fearful terms like “crypto is dead”—hence the name of this video—or “it is over.” Every thumbnail on the internet is always clickbaity with phrases like “it is over” or “it started.” However, this type of capitulation and exhaustion language often flags the bottom.

The old joke is that when the last optimist leaves the room, that is the bottom.

We are essentially at that stage right now. Shout-out to all the optimists that are here as well.

This chart shows why allocations are very important.

These are the actual scorecards since the U.S. President took office:

• Silver is up 123%.

• Micron is up 1,200%.

• Gold is up 68%.

• NASDAQ is up 42%.

• Russell 2000 is up 38%.

• S&P is up 30%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down 41%, Ethereum is down 48% (nearly half), and altcoins have been smashed entirely. The joke is that he is the first “crypto President,” and boy, do his results suck. This is probably making him even more unpopular.

I used to talk about $42K in the last cycle.

$42K was one of those levels that acted as either support or resistance for the longest time. I believe that $63K is the new $42K. According to Zremlin, we hit $63K in 2021, 2024, and 2026. We had it before the Iran war began, four months into the war, before Trump took office, and 18 months after Trump took office.

We have been down at this level since February, so we are seven months down at the bottom. Considering all the stuff that has happened in the space, it is actually not bad. Bitcoin today is up $1,550, which is unusual for a Monday.

For other things that are dead, look at the Clarity Act.

I have been sharing Kalshi reports for a little while, but now the odds of it being approved in 2026 are gone. This takes all the hope for the altcoiners with it. Alex Thorne from Galaxy lowered the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 down to 10%. Eight weeks ago, he was sure it was in the bag at 75%, but now he thinks that it is not going to happen.

What I always like to say is never underestimate the power of the banksters. They are the ones who do not want the Clarity Act approved because that would eat their deposits.

It is all about