INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

August 7th, 2026

Aloha from the great state of Hawaii!

It’s Friday again – and we’re still waiting for Kilauea’s 53rd episode here on the Big Island, along with the announcement of a ‘deal’ with the Islamic State of Iran on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the abandonment of their enriched uranium /nuclear weapon program.

Unfortunately, the 53rd episode is more likely to happen.

Wasn’t it just last week that President Donald Trump was telling us Iran had until Tuesday to make a deal … or else?

You know, “one last chance.” But in all actuality, it’s just one more chance. The latest chance.

As long as Lucy (Iran) has the football (Strait of Hormuz), Charlie Brown (Trump) will line up to kick it (negotiate).

The White House is still playing by Iran’s rules – still chasing a ‘deal.’

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WELCOME TO THE HOTEL CALIFORNIA

Photo Credit: Asylum Records. Hotel California Album Cover

As much as the Trump Administration is trying to find that ever elusive ‘off-ramp’ – it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the President has checked the U.S. into the Hotel California and Iran, Israel, Jordan and the Gulf State nation’s aren’t going to make it easy.

As the Eagles sang in their 1976 hit song Hotel California:

We are all just prisoners here of our own device. And in the master’s chambers, they gathered for the feast. They stab it with their steely knives, but they just can’t kill the beast. Last thing I remember, I was running for the door. I had to find the passage back to the place I was before. Relax, said the night man, we are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.

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LEAVING US WITH THE TRUMP CONUNDRUM

Trump’s business sense tells him to cut his losses and move on. But Trump the Commander-in-Chief knows he can’t do that – he has staked his legacy and America’s reputation on “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon” and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

But his negotiating team is looking for an out – versus the hard right. His red lines are beginning to take on more of a pinkish hue.

As we wrote on Wednesday, Iran and Oman are negotiating terms for the passage of ships through the Strait as Witkoff & Kushner observe, and Iran’s de facto leader – Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi – is saying “Iran will continue working on nuclear weapons as long as the U.S. and Israel possess them,” intensifying concerns that Iran is using negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz to postpone concessions on its nuclear program.

According to Vahidi, “As long as the U.S. and Israel possess nuclear weapons, we will continue working on them for our national security … If they disarm, we will disarm.”

The President has painted himself into a corner. Plan A (set conditions for the Iranian people to take back their country) didn’t work, and Plan B (negotiate a peace deal) is failing. Reports coming out of Oman suggest Witkoff & Kushner are relinquishing control of the Strait.

But the President can’t bring himself to pull the trigger on Plan C – remove the Iranian regime and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

As we said in our July 30th INTREP360, Gen. Colin Powell’s advice to President George W. Bush in August 2002 during the run up to the invasion of Iraq – Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) – is playing in his head:

“You need to understand, if you take out a government, take out a regime, guess who becomes the government and regime and is responsible for the country? You are. So if you break it, you own it.”

And Trump doesn’t want that – another nation building project.

He would rather make a deal (Plan B) with the current regime than remove it (Plan C). “I’m not looking to kill people. I’d rather make a deal.”

But leaving the regime in place only creates conditions for another ‘forever war.’

Nor does the President want more American blood on his hands – to date, 18 killed in action and 620 wounded. The President seems to have lost his nerve after the rescue of the two F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet crew members shot down by Iranian air defenses over southwestern/central Iran in April.

Air power alone and tit for tat retaliation strikes aren’t working – the Iranian regime is willing to take the beating, as long as they aren’t the target.

Plan C means ‘boots on the ground.’ And Iran is betting the President won’t do that.

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FIX BAYONETS

Like it or not – the only solution to Iran is the removal of the current regime.

160 days of air strikes may have depleted long range precision munition inventories for the U.S. – but there isn’t a shortage of 30mm ammunition for chain guns on the U.S. Air Force’s A-10 Warthog and the Army’s AH-64 Apache helicopter – the military’s premier close air support platforms.

U.S. Army Rangers, paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, and Marines are prepared to be part of the solution. It’s what they do – very well.

The U.S. needs not to go this alone either. Israel and Ukraine are prepared to support as well – as are an undisclosed number of the Gulf Nation states.

It's time to finish the job.

Winning solves the problem - permanently.

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No ICYMI videos today. Between my travels throughout the Hawaiian island chain and Mark’s 91 year old Aunt falling and breaking her shoulder – we’ve both had our distractions.

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Mahalo and thanks for reading!

Have a great weekend and we’ll see you on Monday!

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.