Maybe you’re surprised to learn that the first round of the NBA playoffs were up 15% from last year and had their best average (3.436 million) since 2014 (3.466 million) and finished up with a game 7 Warriors/Kings game that was the most-watched first round NBA playoff game since 1999.
Is it surprising? On the one hand best in 9 years and best in 24 years seem pretty surprising, particularly in a diminished TV viewing landscape. On the other hand, there have been changes to Nielsen measurement that make comparisons to past years, particularly comparisons prior to 2020, pretty ridiculous.
Wherever you stand on the appropriateness of comparing players from different eras, the appropriateness of comparing even same era Nielsen ratings is questionable in some cases. The NBA is one of those cases.
Nielsen began including out of home viewing in 2020, and people mostly think of bars, restaurants, airports, hotels and gyms when they hear “out of home viewing.” But because the out of home viewing is tracked via audio detection, it’s very likely the case that most of the out of home viewing is viewing at other people’s homes. That has demonstrably been the case on holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter.
But damn the luck, COVID-19 put a real damper on the 2019-20 and 2020-21 NBA seasons. That period wasn’t exactly optimized for out of home viewing either.
Thus, comparisons before 2020 are pretty worthless because of measurement changes and comparisons to 2020 and 2021 are pretty worthless because of COVID.
That leaves last year, 2022.
Is it surprising the 1st round was up 15% from last year
It’s not surprising to me, but I don’t think it should be very surprising to anyone who looks at the teams out from 2022 and in for 2023.
Out:
Pelicans
Mavericks
Jazz
Bulls
Raptors
In:
Lakers
Clippers
Kings
Knicks
Cavs
Adding both Los Angeles teams plus the Knicks and a Kings team that hadn’t been to the playoffs in 17 years seems pretty good. 15% better than last year good? Absolutely! Especially when you subtract out the Raptors* and add in a first round game 7 on a Sunday afternoon featuring the Warriors. There were no game 7s in the first round last year.
Even with the measurement changes, the most-watched 1st round game in 24 years (or ever on Disney platforms) still is very impressive, though to the chagrin of Disney, great first round game 7s featuring the Warriors, Lakers or LeBron airing on a Sunday on ABC are very rare.
. *Viewing in Canada isn’t included in the U.S. TV ratings.
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