Pessimism of the Intellect, Optimism of the Will Favorite posts | Manifold podcast | Twitter: @hsu_steve
Thanks to Google and Blogspot for many happy years hosting this blog. However, Google has gradually stopped supporting this platform.The engineers at Substack were kind enough to import all of my old posts to a new blog there. From now on I will post only on Substack. See you there! :-)https://stevehsu.substack.com/
Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. Steve and Glenn discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From
Replica Wormholes and Quantum Hair https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.02331 Xavier Calmet, Stephen D.H. Hsu We discuss recent applications of Euclidean path integrals to the black hole information problem. In calculations with replica wormholes as the next-to-leading order correction to the Gibbons-Hawking saddlepoint, the radiation density matrix approaches a pure state at late
Casey Handmer (PhD Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform
Recent interview with Razib Khan. We've known each other IRL for about 20 years now, so this conversation has a slightly different character than other interviews I've done. I highly recommend his substack and podcast, particularly if you are interested in ancient DNA, human evolution, deep history.
Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ Steve and Russell discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 13:25 Hong Kong and finance 31:53 China property bubble 48:54 Dollar status
Recent podcast interview with AppliedAI. We discuss SuperFocus.ai Enterprise GPT. Good intro to how customer-defined AI/LLM memory eliminates hallucinations.
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47
Elizabeth Carr (first US IVF baby) and Genomic Prediction in the Wall Street Journal. Elizabeth Carr has always been a living symbol of fertility technology’s possibilities. Now she is the face of its challenges. Carr, 42 years old, is the first baby born by in vitro fertilization in the U.S. Over the years she has told countless audiences how the technology made it possible for her mother
Really fun conversation! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:21 Steve's Encounter with Richard Feynman 03:31 Discussion on Genetics and Human Improvement 11:08 The Role of Genetics in Disease Prediction 18:10 Understanding the Influence of Genetics on Behaviour 21:37 The Future of Genetic Selection in Embryos 39:24 The Role of Genetics in Addiction 
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the
This lecture covers DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: Could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light
I've been listening to Hidden Forces with Demetri Kofinas for years now. He's an excellent interviewer with interests in finance, geopolitics, technology and more.Audio-only version. In Episode 351 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Hsu, a Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University.
Sean Reyes is Utah Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00
This is the sequel to the earlier conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies. In this video we briefly demonstrate some of the voice capabilities of the SuperFocus AI. Progress in generative AI is faster than anything I've ever seen
Great conversation with Erik, a well-known SV Founder and investor. TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:01) Political polarization in academia (05:27) The decline of meritocracy in academia (09:40) Why can't academia change? (13:07) Truth-seeking in startups (20:16) Sponsors | Shopify | Givewell (23:16) The fertility crisis (31:51) AI and labor (
TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss US-China strategic competition and military technology. Audio-Only version and Transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/military-technology-and-u-s-china-war-in-the-pacific-51Previous episodes with TP include: China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/
This is a conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies. I was in Manila in December to meet with BPO companies. We demonstrated narrow AIs built using LLMs, but in which the LLM is forced to "consult its internal memory" before answering
When asked what I want for Christmas, I reply: Peace On Earth, Good Will To Men :-) No one ever seems to recognize that this comes from the Bible (Luke 2.14). Linus said it best in A Charlie Brown Christmas: And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord
Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. https://research.gavekal.com/ Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China
I'm in the Philippines now. I flew here after the semester ended, in order to meet with outsourcing (BPO = Business Process Outsourcing) companies that run call centers for global brands. This industry accounts for ~8% of Philippine GPD (~$40B per annum), driven by comparative advantages such as the widespread use of English here and relatively low wages. I predict that AIs of the type
Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry. Lynk - https://lynk.world/ 0:00 Introduction and guest background 1:27 Miller's early passion for space 3:54 Evolution of commercial space 6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX 8:01 The challenges of early stage startups 11:26
TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://x.com/tphuang. The EV tipping point has arrived in China. Even most techology experts do not appreciate the coming huge impacts on global economics, manufacturing, energy transition, etc.Chapters:0:00 Introduction 2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles
Detailed analysis of boost-glide (BGV) and Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRV): physics of interception by US SM-2,3 etc. Hypersonic Weapons: Vulnerability to Missile Defenses and Comparison to MaRVs David Wright and Cameron L. Tracy Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy, Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for
I really enjoyed this conversation. Taylor is a very unique investor who relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies.Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan. Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:02 Taylor's background and