PDB — 2026-08-25 0010

Additional commercial vessel damage in the Strait of Hormuz is very likely within 45 days, driven by Operation Economic Outcast, the rial's breach of 2 million per dollar, and Rezaei's tanker-targeting threat. Moderate confidence reflects two strikes in one week; expanded US naval escort or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Navy stand-down would alter this assessment. Secondary sanctions on…