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random thoughts that need a way out....

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why AI is likely to lead to a golden age for high discretionary outperformers (at the cost of others)

because alpha is inherently personal, therefore not everything that counts can be counted. however, some degree of meaningful work can be (narrow repeatable and quantifiable tasks ideally) and that is where AI excels. the result? AI will dramatically lighten the load for individuals who possess alpha in these types of domains leveraging them the ability to exclusively focus on what differentiates…

why AI can easily replace low discretionary occupations

because there is little to zero room for alpha generation to differentiate yourself from the pack.

gambling is not inherently 'bad'

gambling without edge is— know the difference.

why it becomes increasingly harder to continue the more successful you become (its more than just the silk sheets)

because success erodes asymmetry. as a result, your expected value paradoxically diminishes the more successful you become. this is primarily attributed to your risk-to-reward dropping at a rate that your improved win rate (given you are now more capable than ever in x domain) cannot compensate for over time. and while its probable that the bet you are still being offered today grants enough…

traders are inherently optimistic (of their future)

because the discipline of investing is rooted in the idea of allocating resources now to get more back later. therefore, it doesnt matter whether you are long or short—you are inherently optimistic that your tomorrow will be brighter than your today. if not, you wouldnt be expending resources in the first place.

someones always got it better than you, and someones always got it worse than you

so, you got it pretty good.

do not become a trader if you are asking for permission

whenever i get asked by someone if they should 'try' trading my gut instinctively wants me to scream one word at them— and its not that i think these people are incapable of figuring it out. rather, it entirely has to do with the fact that i never asked for permission. why? i had fostered a worthy enough cause that did not seek even the slightest hint of external validation. given how low the…

a loser and a bum are not synonymous

a loser is someone who is failing to succeed; a bum is someone who fails to try. one is a necessary condition to become your best self, the other is a necessary condition to become your worst self—ill let you figure out which is which.

annual reviews are over-rated

any review process is done for the sole purpose of creating a feedback loop to enable learning over time. therefore, the shorter you can create the loop (without 'overfitting'), the rate at which you learn will also increase, as an inevitable consequence. so, if you are one of those people who wait until the last week of the year to see where you stand and make your 'big' changes— your logic is…

a pro...

ruthlessly truth-seeks, relentlessly self-improves, applies great urgency (when needed), and avoids disaster, at all costs. how do they do it? a worthy cause.