Winnipeg Jets Fantasy Preview

In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.

(update: Oct 6)

We’re down to the two final team previews. Honestly it’s been a grind haha. Almost gave up but it has been awesome to see the surge in subscribers after releasing projections. I’m assuming many of you have already completed your drafts but as I’m sure you know, fantasy hockey championships aren’t just won at the draft. You gotta stay on top of shit throughout the year, maximize man games, jump on guys that come out of no where and ditch guys that aren’t hitting the mark. And I’ll be there to help.

I don’t typically cover goalies, mainly because of how insanely volatile and frustrating that position is and Hellebuyck is a great example of that. I was a lucky Helly owner last year and he carried me to a regular season title. But after being the top goalie for most of the year, he was one of the worst goalies down the stretch, when it mattered most for fantasy playoffs. 

From Mar 5 > Mar 24, WPG played 13 games. Helly only dressed for 8 of them and he went 3-5, posting a GAA of 3.23 and barely .900 SV% including 4 games where he let in 4 or more goals. Meanwhile, his backup Broissoit went 3-1-1, posting 2 shutouts, a 1.34 GAA and .945 SV%. To make matters worse for Jets fans, the Vezina winner also shat the bed in the playoffs, going 1-4 and posting a 5.01 GAA and .870 SV%. I hate goalies.

Another early playoff exit spelled big changes for next year. The biggest of which was probably behind the bench. Scott Arniel will make his debut, taking over from recently retired Rick Bownes. This will be Arniel's second chance as an NHL head coach after his stint with the Columbus Blue Jackets from 2010 to 2012. He's had extensive experience as an assistant and associate coach since then, which has likely influenced his current coaching style. 

The Jets parted ways with Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt on the back end as well as Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli at forward. They added Dylan Coghlan and Haydn Fleury at defense as well as Jaret Anderson-Dolan and Mason Shaw at forward.

We’ve gotten a good look at potential opening night lines as camp is wrapping up. With Monahan’s PP1 spot last year up for grabs, will we finally see Ehlers get steady PP1 deployment or will he split with Perfetti?

Here’s my best guess for now:

Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi
Ehlers - Namestnikov - Perfetti
Niederreiter - Lowry - Appleton
Barron - Kupari - Iafallo
Extras: Anderson-Dolan, Gustafsson, Lambert, Shaw

Morrissey - DeMelo
Samberg - Pionk
Stanley - Miller
Extras: Heinola, Fleury, Coghlan

Hellebuyck
Kahkonen
Comrie

Potential PP units:

PP1: Vilardi, Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey
PP2: Neiderreiter, Perfetti, Namestinokov, Iafallo, Pionk

Winterpeg has a solid top 3 assets in banger leagues, led by Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Morrissey has seen his banger category coverage dip while his points have blossomed. None of the other offensive weapons on the Jets provide much in terms of PIMs and hits. Kyle Connor is extremely soft, Ehlers and Perfetti also hurt you in those cats.

Neal Pionk is the most valuable overall asset who provides solid banger cat coverage but his offense isn’t amazing. Stanley, Shaw and DeMelo might be decent streamer options when you need help in banger cats but shouldn’t be rostered regularly.

After spending the better part of his career as a solid 35-40 point defenceman, Morrissey exploded to an 80 point-pace in 2022-23 and followed that up with a 70 point pace last year. His 80 point breakout year had red flags all over the place and most folks were expecting him to come all the way down to 60 points last year, but he beat the regression curve once more. It’s worth noting that Morrissey’s second half last year was just as dominant as his breakout in 2023. Over his final 39 games, he paced for 71 apples and 78 points. 

When comparing last season to his previous 3 seasons (213 games), Norrissey’s iSH% at all strengths was down -27%, but his 5v5 iSH% only down -4%. He saw a slight decrease in 5v5 ixG/60 (-7%) and his iSCF/60 was flat. You could expect a few more goals for Josh next year, but nothing too crazy. 

His luck metrics still point at potential negative regression for next year but we know how that played out last year. At 5v5, his on-ice SH% was up +11%, his IPP was up +35% and his 2A/60 was up a whopping +178%. His 5v5 2A/60 rate of 0.64 was good for 42nd in the NHL last year amongst all skaters and 11th amongst defensemen. 

I would play the assist projection a bit more conservatively but I wouldn’t drop it all the way back down to Earth. We’re dealing with a different Morrissey. The biggest change with him since his breakout campaign is that he’s become THE guy on PP1 and he isn’t used on the SH unit anymore. In 2022-23 he had a 66.7% PP share and last year he maintained that role with 65.5%. This is up from the 55% PP range he was in previously and the SH deployment has seen the inverse effect, going from 25% SH share to 4% in the last 2 years. 

What’s preventing Morrissey from being an elite D option in banger leagues is his banger category coverage. There was a period where Morrissey could be counted on for 150+ hits, 65+ PIMs and 160 blocks–those are elite banger numbers. But nowadays, he’s more of a 100 hit, 50 PIMs and 100 blocks–kind of D. That’s a massive step backwards, but he obviously took a massive step forward in offense. In banger leagues he’s an excellent 2nd D worth a 5th or 6th round pick in a 12-team league. If you don’t count PIMs, you could make the case for him being a 1st D on your squad.

I’m trying to come up with a term that describes players that are high offense, but come with crippling banger coverage. Something like the buttercup boys or the Charmin club or the marshmallow squad. Whatever we call them, Jack Hughes and Kyle Connor are co-captains. 

There’s nothing wrong with these players per say, they are elite offensive weapons but if you draft them, you need to make additional moves to make up for the handicap in banger categories. Just like when you draft a Gudas or a Lauzon, you’re obviously hurting the offensive category balance of your squad. 

The 27-year-old KFC (Kyle Fucking Connor) finished the year dressing in 65 games and pacing for 43 goals, 77 points, 24 PPPs, 279 shots. That pace puts him in the top 40 skaters in offensive category coverage. But his 8 PIMs, 18 hits and 24 blocks put him at the bottom of the NHL in terms of banger cat coverage. Last year, Matthew Coronato was the only player to have worse banger cats than Connor. Jack Hughes was 15th worst. 

There isn’t too much fluctuation in Connor’s underlying metrics last year, aside from a slight bump in iSH% and a slight dip in TOI, he did have a solid +18% increase in his iCF/60 at 5v5 compared to his previous 3 seasons. What’s wild though is that he somehow found a way to reduce his 5v5 PIMs/60 by -81% and his 5v5 Hits/60 by -50%. Legendary Marshmallow Squad stuff right there. 

Despite the lack of banger category coverage I still think Connor is a top 100 skater but he’s LW only and it’s the deepest position. If your league doesn’t count PIMs bump him way the hell up your list, like +30 spots into the top 60.

I used to be the biggest Ehlers truther, but he’s burned me like 3 years in a row now so as you read this breakdown, keep in mind there’s a strong shade of bias haha. 

There isn’t anything super interesting in Ehlers’ rate stats last year. His iSH% overall was down -8% compared to his previous 3 seasons but his 5v5 ixG/60 were down -15% and his 5v5 iSCF/60 were down a concerning -26%. He kept up his elite SOG/60 pace (11th in the NHL) but he shot way less dangerously and was generating a lot less scoring chances. Ehlers did have a bit of a bump in his iCF/60 at 5v5 (+7%) good for 4th best in the entire NHL last year, beating guys like Jack Hughes, Timo Meier and Brady Tkachuk.

Ehlers has spent most of his 9 year NHL career in a sheltered role in Winnipeg away from any prime PP deployment. Last year was no different, Ehlers was limited to only 15:52 TOI and 43.5% PP share. He played in all 82 games posting 25 goals on 233 shots, 36 assists, 61 points and only 7 PPPs. By all accounts this was a pretty disappointing year production wise as most expectations for Ehlers were in the 75+ point range, many expecting a spot on the top unit and something closer to 20 PPPs.

So far it does appear that Ehlers could finally get a strangle hold on PP1 deployment, having taken Monahan’s spot. If that sticks, he’s obviously in for a big year, but Cole Perfetti is right behind him and knocking on the door. I didn’t feel great handing Ehlers 3.5 mins of PPTOI given his previous deployment so I projected him going back and forth with Perfetti and being closer to 2.5 mins.

Overall, I have Ehlers bouncing back into the 65+ point range again putting up a more respectable but conservative 13 PPP. His rank in banger leagues is 158th, good for one of your final picks. But if you don’t have PIMs in your league you can bump him up to 135th.

Gabriel “The Net Front King” Vilardi was limited to just 47 games last year due to multiple injuries that included an enlarged spleen, a sprained MCL and several undisclosed upper body injuries and illnesses. He did put up a solid 82-game pace of 38 goals, 24 assists and 63 points, alongside 24 PPPs and 204 shots. 

The 25 year old has yet to suit up for more than 63 games in a full season over his 5 year career but last year was his most productive across several categories. He made the most of his +39% increase in PPTOI compared to his previous 3 seasons, pacing for 24 PPPs even boosting that pace to a whopping 39 PPPs over his final 23 games. 

Vilardi has been an efficient shooter all his career but last year was especially efficient scoring at a rate of 18.8% at all strengths and 15.58% at 5v5. The all strengths rate is a +13% higher than his previous 3 seasons but his rate at 5v5 is pretty flat. Most of his efficiency came on the PP where he had a PP iSH% of +22% higher than previous seasons. 

It would be easy to chalk this up to luck but there is reason to believe that he deserved that increase in efficiency. At 5v5, Vilardi saw his SOG/60 increase +24%, his ixG/60 went up +49% and his iSCF/60 progressed +22%. All of these are excellent signs of an improving player who was a lot more dangerous and efficient last year. 

There could also be a case to be made that he should’ve gotten a few more apples than he did. At 5v5, his 2A/60 were way down -74% but next year that could be balanced out by the fact that his 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage was up +41%, good for 1st on the Jets and 30th in the NHL. At 5v5, his IPP was also down -30% but part of that could be because he went from playing mostly with Blake Lizotte and Alex Iafallo to being stapled next to Scheifele and Connor. Usually an improvement in linemates means your IPP can come down.

Overall, I think over an 82-game pace, Vilardi should repeat as a 35+ goal scorer alongside 27ish PPs and 200 shots. What brings his value down is the banger coverage. His 24 PIMs and 24 hits last year don’t do him any service in banger cat leagues. 

Sources I used in part for this article:

• Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.

• Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.

• Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.

• HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.