Vancouver Canucks Fantasy Preview

In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.

(update: Sep 28)

Vancouver stormed through the 2023-24 season, capturing the Pacific Division title with 109 points, riding high on a potent offense and airtight defense. But beneath the surface, something more volatile was brewing — their early success masked by unsustainable shooting percentages and wild goaltending numbers, all destined to come back down to Earth. 

By midseason, the cracks started to show, as many predicted, with their scoring dropping off a cliff. Still though, the Canucks managed a solid playoff run, but it always felt like their success was on thin ice. 

Jack Adams winner Rick Tocchet is obviously back behind the bench this season. He’ll be equipped with a few new faces, most notably an addition to the top 6 in Jake DeBrusk. There are some pretty wild expectations for JDB out there, some even calling for a career year 68 point season. Don’t know about that but you can’t deny the potential sweet deployment he’ll be getting. 

We could also see a few prospects make a push for the opening night roster. Linus Karlsson and Arshdeep Bains are expected to compete with the likes of Blueger, Sherwood, Aman and Di Giuseppe – but are in tough. 

We have seen several different pairings at camp but Tocchet seems to indicate that Miller and Boser are a pair that will start together and so are EP40 and DeBrusk.

Here’s my best guess for now:

Heinen - Miller - Boeser
DeBrusk - Pettersson - Garland
Joshua - Blueger - Sprong
Hoglander - Suter - Sherwood
Extras: Di Giuseppe, Aman

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Myers
Forbort - Desharnais
Extras: Juulsen, Friedman

Demko?
Lankinen
Silovs

Potential PP units:

PP1: Hughes, Miller, Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk
PP2: Hronek, Garland, Hoglander, Suter, Sprong

J.T. Miller is by far the most valuable fantasy asset in Gastown when it comes to banger leagues but he also takes the cake in offense. Boeser has solid offense but his lack of category coverage really hurts his overall value. The opposite is true for Joshua who’s the top option for bangs but will hurt you offensively.

God damn, what a year for the 24-year old, Norris trophy winning stud. I don’t need to tell you that Quinn Hughes isn’t an all-round multi-category beast, but that’s not why we love him. Regardless of your categories, an 80+ point skater from the blue line with 35+ PPPs demands respect. Only 5 defencemen paced for 80+ points last year. 

Quinn definitely had a miracle season, especially in the first half. In his first 43 games, he put up 11 goals, 40 apples and 51 points, good for a 97 point pace. Just like many of his teammates, that pace did drop in the second half, but not to the same degree as others. Over his final 39 games, he posted 6 goals, 35 apples and 41 points, good for a 86 point pace.

What makes Quinn especially valuable in category leagues is his dominance on the man advantage. In the second half of the year, no other defenseman paced for more PPPs than the 44 he put up. In fact, only McDavid and Kaprizov put up a better PPP pace than Quinn in the second half. 

Let’s dive into some of the underlying numbers by comparing last year’s numbers to his previous 3 seasons (210 games). The first thing that jumps out is his iSH% which was riding sky high at 8.54% last year compared to his usual 4.48% which is up +91%. He also increased his 5v5 SOG/60 rate by +44%, the result was a career high 17 goals. At his normal 4.48% shooting rate he would’ve put up 9 goals, so it’s wise to expect a negative regression in goals next year. 

Quinn was also running hot in a few other places. His 5v5 on-ice SH% was up +31%, his 5v5 IPP was a tad high at +10% and his 5v5 2A/60 was way too high at +63%. All of those metrics in addition to his iSH% should come down next year… but the question is how far down, and it’s not that simple for him.

Yes, a lot of things were in Hughe’s favor last year, no doubt. But he also deserved a lot of it. His shooting percentage was wack, but part of that was deserved. Not only did he shoot a lot more, he shot way more dangerously last year. At 5v5 his ixG/60 was way up +67% but most encouragingly, his iSCF/60 was up +82% good for 7th best among all Ds last year (min 35 GP). Only 2 defencemen improved their iSCF/60 rates more than Quinn did last year and only 1 had better improvement in his ixG/60 rates. 

Can’t forget his 5v5 iCF/60 rates either. He improved his chance generation per 60 rates by +68% last year, good for 11th best among all Ds last year (min 35 GP), only 1 D had a better improvement rate than Quinn (Ferraro somehow haha). 

So overall, I don’t think you should bet on another 17 goal, 90+ point season. But given his age, and his improvement in chance generation and expected goals, I think 13 goals and 85ish points is well within reach, more in line with his second half performance. 

Quinn’s an undisputed top 2 or 3 D option in points only leagues, in banger leagues he’s ranked 6th, but it’s neck and neck with Fox and Bouchard so you could easily make the case for top 4 behind only Makar, Josi and Dahlin. Draft him in the 4th round as your first D and complement him with Gudas, Nurse, Lauzon or Trouba later on.

Like most of his teammates, Pettersson’s first half numbers were wild. Over his first 43 games, he paced for 95 points, 40 STP and 229 shots. But over his second half (39 games) that pace came back down to Earth, all the way down to 67 points, 25 STP and 183 shots. 

Despite riding an insane 5v5 on-ice SH% of 13.35% (up +29% from his prev 3 seasons), EP40 had a pretty mid year. BTW that +29% spike doesn’t fully tell the story of how insane that on-ice conversion rate was. Consider that no other player in the NHL who played at least 30 games last year had a higher 5v5 on-ice SH%. Nuts. 

There’s a few things I don’t love when I compare his 5v5 rates last year to his previous 3 seasons. His SOG/60 are down -7%, his ixG/60 are down -18%, and both of his iCF/60 and iSCF/60 are down a bit as well. 

The hits are worth pointing out for Pettersson. You could look at his numbers last year and just assume that he’ll hit around 125-130 times again next year. But considering that he’s been more of a 65-75 hit guys most of his career, I’d be a bit more conservative on that. His 5v5 hits/60 more than doubled last year and unless he’s just decided to be an angry 25 year old going forward, he’ll let J.T. Miller and Dakota Joshua do most of the hitting in Vancouver. 

I think EP40 is still a solid bet for 85-90 points with the potential for plenty more if things click right. His second half numbers do give me pause but it’s unclear if he was playing through some kind of injury. Overall, I still think he’s right around the top 30 skaters in banger leagues (with PIMs) because of that offense and his hits and blocks don’t hurt his overall value like a lot of other guys in that point range. If your league doesn’t count PIMs, bump him up a good 10-15 spots putting him closer to the top 20 skaters overall.

Millsy is well known in banger circles for his legendary multi category contribution and tri-position eligibility. Last year he set multiple career bests with 37 goals, 103 points, 217 hits, 40 PPPs and 65 blocks. Oh and 823 FOWs, if that’s also your thing. What a crazy year. 

69 skaters paced for 200+ hits last year (min 20GP) but only 2 of them paced for more than 50 points: Brady Tkachuk and J.T. Miller. Beauties. At 31.5 years old though, you gotta ask yourself when he starts losing an edge. 

JTM recorded a career high in goals despite shooting less than he usually does all thanks to riding an elevated iSH%. Compared to his previous 3 seasons (214 GP), he was converting on +57% more shots at 5v5. Granted, he was more dangerous with his shots last year, his 5v5 ixG/60 was up +17% and his iSCF/60 was also up a tad +5%. Still best to expect him to shoot around 15% next year vs the 19% he shot last year. 

Like most of his teammates, he was also riding high in the 5v5 on-ice SH% last year seeing that rate go up +45%, just shy of 13% good for 2nd in the NHL last year behind only EP40. His 5v5 IPP was flat though and his 5v5 2A/60 wasn’t too inflated (+13%). 

JTM was definitely lucky last year and likely doesn’t repeat that 100+ point season but he’s still a solid bet to threaten 90 and come close to 40 PPPs alongside his elite banger coverage. Draft this man in the first round of your banger leagues with confidence, he’s a top 10 player once again. 

The 28 year-old had himself quite the contract year last year. He only played in 63 games but posted an 82-game pace of 23 goals, 42 points, 78 PIMs, 52 blocks and a whopping 319 hits. Only 3 players paced for more hits than Joshua last year (min 10 GP). Somehow he even managed to boost that hit pace to 371 over his final 21 games and probably won a lot of manager's hits categories all by himself. 

The iSH% is glaringly red for Joshua though, over his previous 121 games Joshua converted on 13.51% of his shots but last year that rate was up +61% at 21.69%. Only 2 players had a higher shooting percentage than Joshua last year (min 15 GP). To make matters more concerning, his on-ice SH% at 5v5 was up +31% and his 5v5 2A/60 was up +17%. Clearly he was a lot luckier than he should’ve been but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that he improved mightily last year.

His IPP at 5v5 was up a bit (+6%) despite playing with better linemates. His 5v5 ixG/60 was up +18% and his 5v5 iSCF/60 was up +30%, he also saw his 5v5 iCF/60. These are all solid indicators that he shot more dangerously and improved his overall offense generation. 

But you’re not taking Joshua for his offense, you're taking him for his elite bangs. Those were so solid last year that they are also unsustainable right? Wrong. Joshua’s +37% increase in icetime is the main culprit for his improved banger cats. At 5v5, his hits/60 was flat and his PIMs/60 were actually down a bit (-4%). Given his fresh new 4 year x 3.25M contract, you gotta think he gets a similar 15ish mins of TOI and that makes him a solid bet for 70 PIMs and 300 hits over an 82 game pace.

Overall, it’s not all about bangs but you certainly won’t get elite offense from this man. I’ve got him ranked just outside the top 150, making him worth a grab in the 13th round of your banger league draft if you count PIMs. If you don’t count PIMs, he’s way down closer to the 200 rank and more of a final pick option.

Sources I used in part for this article:

• Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.

• Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.

• Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.

• HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.