2025-26 Projection Cards: Spreadsheet drops Friday Sep 12th

Finished some new player card templates to go along with the spreadsheet which is dropping to subscribers next week on the 12th. Sharing cards for the first 5-10 requests I received on Twitter lat night.

Update: Projections are out!

Big Mo is what banger dreams are made of. He was 1 of only 4 players (Weegar, Trouba and Nurse) to deliver the rare “triple‑150” coverage (SOG/HIT/BLK), and he actually busted through that.

Digging Deeper

Compared to his previous 3 seasons, last year’s deployment lifted across the board and his 5v5 expected goals and chance generation spiked even as raw SOG/60 dipped a bit. Interestingly, he saw a monster jump in high‑danger creation (+183% iHDCF/60) and more rush attempts (+63%), so it’s not just bangs.

Seider’s 5v5 on‑ice SH% was ‑11% vs prior baseline and his 5v5 IPP fell ‑12%, with 2A/60 ‑24%, classic markers for assist rebound with unchanged or better chance volume. Banger rates stayed elite: Hits/60 +8% year over year and Blocks stayed massive despite a modest ‑7% per‑60 dip, buoyed by the extra minutes.

Despite the lack of hits and pims, Boldy is a stud in cat leagues because of his shot volume. Even away from Kap, he drives offense single handedly. Top 35 in 5v5 SOG/60 last year. Top 15 in 5v5 IPP amongst skaters who played at least 18 TOI. Top 20 in 5v5 iCF/60. What a beast.

Dual eligible winger. Have him ranked 7th RW, 20th skater.

Not many guys can put up the category coverage that JTM does. Somewhat concerned about the SOG drop after the trade. Playing it a bit safe with him next year. Still elite. 1 of very few guys that can put up 80+ points and threaten 200 hits.

Still think Dobson is worth a top 30 D pick this year but the expected drop in PPP really hurts his overall value. Tons of shots and blocks and he just needs a Hutson injury to climb into the top 10 D convo.

Projecting a similar-ish year to last year for Tage, puts him into the top 15 RWs and inside the top 50 skaters in banger leagues.

Digging Deeper

Tage Thompson’s 47 goal-pace last year was driven by a big jump in 5v5 and overall shooting percentage, despite notable drops in shot volume and chance quality. His power-play production fell off, with PPP tumbling from 24 to 17 as his PP iSH% dipped 32%. The goal spike looks unsustainable, while his assist totals were held down by a sharp drop in secondary assist rates (2A/60 down 37–40%), suggesting poor puck-luck rather than playmaking decline. If finishing regresses and his secondary helpers rebound, expect fewer goals but a better assist pace next season.

Such a massive fan of Cuylle, and I think Sullivan will be also. This guy will win you the hits category every week and he won't crush you in other cats like a lot of other hit-machines. I have him just outside the top 20 LWs in banger leagues.

Still fully believe that 120 point Bedard is in there, just not with the talent that surrounds him this year. Lack of banger cat coverage holds his value back a bit but elite shots and PPP make him a top 15 C in most cat leagues.

Digging Deeper

I am concerned about his sophomore year though, it was a step back under the hood. At 5v5 his SOG/60 fell ~21%, xG/60 ~38%, SCF/60 ~28%, HDCF/60 ~50%, and rush attempts/60 ~50%. His PPTOI also dropped ~22%, which didn’t help counting stats. “Luck” was split: overall iSH% ticked up, but 5v5 iSH% slid ~33% and his 5v5 IPP fell ~25%, so he was less involved when the Hawks scored at even strength. Secondary playmaking dried up (2A/60 down), and you can see the frustration in the bangers; PIMs/60 nearly doubled while Hits/60 dipped ~34% and Blocks/60 nudged up a bit.

Usage should stabilize and trend up with Jeff Blashill. He’s a structure-first coach who spreads minutes early but rides true PP1/workhorse looks when they click, which favors Bedard’s deployment and restores man-advantage volume. Expect PP finishing to cool from last year’s hot stretch, but the even-strength profile screams rebound: depressed 5v5 shooting, a lower on-ice SH%, and a squeezed IPP/2A mix usually revert with more touches and better linemates. Shot rate should claw back toward year-one levels as rush and high-danger chances normalize.

Stone is much better IRL than a fantasy player. Solid offense with really low peripheral numbers. Brings him outside the top 35 RWs in banger cat leagues.

Big fan, he has 80+ upside but don't have the TOI or the PPTOI to get him the volume he needs this year, mainly because of Norris. The model assumes 82 GP from Norris and we know that won't happen. So Kulich could blow past these numbers.

With a full year next to Ehlers and Aho, Jarvis could have a huge year, but he still has that supressed TOI from Rod that keeps his ceiling a bit lower. Move him up like 20 spots overall if your league doesn't count PIMs.

Digging Deeper

Seth Jarvis had another huge year, building on his breakout year in 2023-24. He exploded across the board in 2024-25. Career-best usage drove the surge, with a massive 18% jump in TOI and a 57% boost in PP time that helped him pace for 36 goals, 75 points, and over 20 PPP. But it wasn’t just ice time, his shot rates spiked 15% to the 230+ range, with big gains in rush chances (+36%) and overall chance generation (+32%).

Physical stats climbed too, with hits, blocks, and PIMs all up meaningfully. Importantly, none of this came from unsustainable luck either, his 5v5 shooting percentage was too low but his PP shooting percentage was too high. The combination of workload, individual rate increases, and stable luck metrics points to Jarvis’s leap being entirely bankable.

Nikishin is a future banger league gem, he's just likely to be marinating under Gostisbehere for a bit. Even if he were to provide no offense in his first year, his peripheral floor is super attractive. I do think in a few years he could pass Mo Seider.

Digging Deeper

Alexander Nikishin is set to make his rookie season debut in 2024–25 and should be a valuable multi-category asset. At 6’4” and 216 lbs, he plays a heavy, physical game that fits Carolina’s aggressive style, and he’s likely to secure a regular top-four role. Where Nikishin truly shines is in peripheral stats, he’s a heavy hitter (1.67 hits per game in the KHL and 1.95 per game in the last 2 years), adds solid shot-blocking numbers (1.48 blocks per game in the KHL and 1.75 per game in the last 2 years), and brings moderate penalty minutes.

His offensive role might start modestly, likely on the second power-play unit, but there’s upside if he earns more opportunities. In multi-cat leagues, his combination of hits, blocks, PIM, and respectable scoring makes him a low-risk, huge-reward later-round target who could quickly become a “set-and-forget” fantasy defenseman if he takes over from Ghost.

That’s it, see you Friday! 🥊