Agility Robotics is Going Public

Churchill Capital Corp XI (NASDAQ: $CCXI), a SPAC ran by Michael Klein, announced an agreement on June 24th to merge with Agility Robotics valuing them at a $2.5 billion pre-money equity valuation and listing them on the NASDAQ under $AGLT.

This will be the first U.S. publicly-listed pure play humanoid company with proven, active commercial deployments. Agility expects to the deal to close before the end of 2026.

From the press release:

• Operating today in commercial environments with leading enterprises including Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada.

• Supported by leading strategic investors and partners across the AI, technology, VC, and industrial ecosystem, including DCVC, NVIDIA, Amazon, SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Foxconn, Schaeffler, Abico, and Playground Global.

• Digit v5 is designed to be the world’s first AI-enabled cooperatively safe humanoid robot; Agility’s vertically integrated platform is general-purpose and built for scaled deployment.

• Strong commercial momentum with more than $300 million of multi-year contracted Digit v5 orders secured to date.

The S-4 filing tends to follow within a couple of months following the deal announcement so we’ll know more then.

Sounds great on paper, but what’s the real price you’re buying it at? Let’s work out the post-money valuation.

Agility rollover: 250m shares | This calculated pre-money valuation divided by $10 per share, the conventional SPAC price

Public SPAC investors: 41.4m shares | Churchill XI's IPO in December 2025 at $10 per share, at that point it would’ve just been an empty shell ie the SPAC

Private Placement SPAC investors: 0.5m shares | Churchill XI’s IPO in December 2025 at $10 per share, at that point it would’ve just been an empty shell ie the SPAC

PIPE investors: 20m shares | Privately arranged direct stock deal that delivers cash at merger closing, Foxconn anchored the PIPE

Sponsor: 13.8m shares

Total: 325.7m shares

Warrants with $11.50 strike price: 4.19m | Each share in the SPAC IPO comes with 1/10th of a warrant)

Fully Diluted Total: 329.89m shares

Implied Valuation at $10/share: ~$3.26bn (assumed no warrants exercised)

Implied Valuation at $15/share: ~$4.95bn

Implied Valuation at $20/share: ~$6.6bn

Implied Valuation at $30/share: ~$9.9bn

REDEMPTION RISKS: The SPAC math and outlook change if the owners of SPAC shares decide to redeem their shares for ~$10 instead of taking the post-merger shares (AGLT). This results in less cash being raised and lowers the float (likely more volatility). This usually happens more when the shares trade around or below $10/share but for now the math above assumes no redemptions.

Here are Churchill Capital’s previous SPACs. Please note that $OKLO was not launched under the Churchill umbrella, but under AltC Acquisition Corp which was cofounded by Sam Altman and Michael Klein, the person behind Churchill Capital.

$OKLO is up 400%+ and remains one of the few SPAC bright spots. It’s a $9bn MCAP pre-revenue company which goes to show you that in this market, a player with a big potential TAM within a theme that is popular (nuclear energy) can still command valuations that detach from near term visible fundamentals.

Agility is already generating revenue in a field - humanoids - that is starting to gain more attention. Let’s look at the valuations in the humanoid field:

Valuations
Figure: $39bn (Sep 2025 Series C)
Boston Dynamics: ~$19bn (derived from Hyundai Glovis annual report)
Unitree: ~$6.2bn (estimated IPO)
UBTech: ~$6.6bn MCAP (trades on Hong Kong Stock Exchange)
Agility: $5.4bn at $16.40 (June 29th close)

Revenue
Unitree: ~$250m YE2025
UBTech: ~$295m YE 2025
Boston Dynamics: ~$97m YE2025

Agility and Figure don’t disclose revenue figures but Agility does report a $300m backlog (which may take multiple years to realize). It’s clear that U.S. investors are happy to pay more of a premium for popular themes.

Agility is acutely focused on the industrial robot doing logistics tasks. It’s current humanoid has hands that only have grippers whereas Figure 03, Tesla’s Optimus, and Boston Dynamics’ Atlas all have dexterous hands with 10+ degrees of freedom.

Agility is working on upgrading its hands and its upcoming Digit v5 will feature swappable hands - where the best hand choice is selected for the relevant task.

Focusing on industrial robots does make sense to me, it’s the most immediately addressable market for humanoids though it doesn’t carry the same headline popping gravitas as a general purpose humanoid who can do your chores and everything else a human can.

The question that naturally begs to be asked then is, why go public via SPAC at a sub $10bn valuation when all your competitors are hitting $20bn+ valuations in the private markets? Are we missing something that investors have seen in the investment docs?

Agility burned about $100m in cash in 2025 and chose not to report revenue in their Investor Presentation SEC filing.

The private market could be drying up or AI may be absorbing all the flows. But robotics VC investments did hit an all-time high in Q1 2026. Though a quarter is a long time in markets and we’ve seen OpenAI now reconsidering their IPO for next year.

Another explanation could be that the top VCs have already backed Figure and other competitors building in stealth which leaves less money wanting to invest in a cash-burning industry to compete where real revenue and scaling is still years away.

The logistics focus by Agility does sound less compelling than the general purpose humanoid that replaces any and all human work which gives you a much larger TAM. From a VC perspective, the latter does make more sense as an investment even if the payoff could be much further down the road as long as you can keep marking up your investments.

Agility’s TAM is still quite large but let’s put it in perspective of the valuation.

At 10,000 units of the Digit v5 deployed they estimate ARR of around $1bn per year so at a $6bn valuation you’re paying roughly 6x revenue. Not ridiculously crazy though that’s 6x revenue from a revenue figure that will take years to get to.

The Digit v5 is launching late this year. They operate a dedicated humanoid factory in Oregon designed to eventually produce up to 10,000 robots per year. So they’re not prepared for 10,000 capacity just yet.

We know that they have $300m in Digit v5 orders - here’s the fine print they have in their SEC filing:

“reflects customer orders for Digit v5, as of May 2026, representing potential multi-year value expected to be realized over time, subject to the realization of certain contractual milestones, and relates to 1,000 Digit v5 robots with three-year term RaaS contract, which includes warrants issued to purchaser vesting proportionately to robots deployed; figures are not a measure of current period revenue”

So that confirms that we’re still years away from the $1bn ARR so the approach being taken here to justify an investment needs to be a VC style % of TAM approach. Agility’s management estimates their TAM to be $1 trillion.

We’ll have more information on Agility’s financials when the S-4 is filed so I’ll provide an update then. This tends to follow within a couple months of the deal being announced.

Long story short, you’re paying for a story here that will take years to play out and via a SPAC which are notorious for high volatility, short violent runs higher, and in many cases the retail investor is left holding the bag. But, as always, there are exceptions.

You could argue that this should trade above a name like OKLO. Or that it should trade much higher and closer to its private market counterparts. You could also argue that if Figure solves the general humanoid problem at potentially a much lower manufacturing cost that Agility becomes irrelevant (interesting podcast by Figure CEO Brett Adcock here). After all, Agility still uses expensive western LiDAR which the other top humanoid makers have moved away from.

To everyone participating, good luck.

My numbers and calculations are pulled from public sources. My calculations and analysis may be wrong. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.