Dear readers,
Currently, it appears that value-oriented tech stock investors will be rewarded for their patience in the second half of 2026. Since the beginning of July, my investable model portfolio has gained 14%, despite a weak first half of the year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index has lost some steam and has stagnated at high levels since midyear.
As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, a recovery in undervalued SaaS and platform stocks was only a matter of time. The current earnings season largely supports my thesis that I published at the beginning of the year “AI isn’t eating enterprise software.”:
Last week, Airbnb, UiPath, Elastic, and Lyft - all of which are in my portfolio - posted double-digit gains. Until recently, all of these companies were considered AI losers. Now, for example, Airbnb is trading at a multi-year high. With every quarterly report, it becomes clearer that AI not only threatens established digital companies but also offers new opportunities, provided the companies are agile enough to adapt and leverage new AI-based technologies.
A year ago, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky was unsure whether AI posed more opportunity or threat to Airbnb. Now, however, he has a different opinion: “AI is the best thing to ever happen to Airbnb.” Chesky pointed out that the time from idea to launch for major projects has been reduced by up to 60%. He also noted that Airbnb delivered nearly 80% more features and improvements in the first half of the year than in the same period last year. The day after the Q2 earnings call, he admitted to CNBC: “I have so underestimated the impact of AI.”
I must also admit that I initially underestimated the capabilities of AI, especially AI agents. The unintentional hacking attack by OpenAI agents on Hugging Face demonstrates just how far autonomous AI agents have come. As part of a security test, an OpenAI system was supposed to solve certain hacking tasks on its own. However, the AI took a different approach: It suspected that the solutions it was looking for might be found on Hugging Face, one of the world’s most important platforms for publishing AI models, training data, and associated program code. The system then independently broke out of its isolated test environment and attacked Hugging Face. In doing so, the system carried out thousands of individual actions largely autonomously and coordinated different steps independently.
For cybersecurity experts, this incident marks a turning point for the industry, which must now adapt to entirely new threat scenarios at lightning speed. As an investor, the incident demonstrates one thing above all: AI agents can now pursue complex goals with astonishing autonomy. I now understand even better why so many SaaS companies are laser focused on making these agents front and center in their product portfolios. Monetizing these agents will likely be a decisive factor in the success of companies like ServiceNow, Salesforce, HubSpot, UiPath, and Monday by 2027 at the latest.
HGI Earnings Radar #1: PayPal, People, Uber, HubSpot
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Aug 6
Many readers have asked me to provide regular analyses of the quarterly reports for the stocks in my portfolio. I’ll try to meet that request with this new format. You’ll receive brief, to-the-point updates on the quarterly reports from “my” companies. I won’t focus on every single metric since you can find those elsewhere. Instead, these posts will focus on the questions that are most important to me as a shareholder.
The Comeback of SaaS Stocks That Were Written Off
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Jul 28
SaaS isn’t dead. The stock market is starting to realize that, too. The next competitive moat in the enterprise software sector won’t be built around the largest AI model, but rather around the so-called “harness” surrounding it—that is, the layer that transforms raw AI into real, productive work. That’s why I believe that select SaaS companies are significantly better positioned for the AI era than the market currently prices in.
Why Individual Investors Can Invest More Successfully Than Fund Managers
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Jul 22
I’ve been thinking a lot about Terry Smith’s (the “English Warren Buffett”) capitulation. Some observers have already interpreted this as the beginning of the end for value investing. It reminded me of an old blog post of mine that sparked controversy nearly 10 years ago and whose thesis has been confirmed by recent events. Here’s my current take on active funds.
Zoom Stock: Is It Time for Me to Buy Back In?
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Jul 2
Three years after the end of the pandemic, the former COVID-19 star has evolved into a highly profitable cash flow machine with AI potential. Zoom’s early pre-IPO investment in Anthropic also provides a sort of safety net for the valuation. But is that enough for me to buy back in?
Airbnb Stock: Will Airbnb Become a Travel Super App?
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Jun 24
It seems that Brian Chesky, the CEO of Airbnb, read my article from a year ago about Airbnb. At that time, I suggested that rental cars and boutique hotels would be logical additions. Now, these offerings are finally coming to the Airbnb app. The next step could be a partnership — or even a merger — with Lyft. Here’s my latest update on the Airbnb stock in my portfolio...
Thank you for your interest! If you would like to support my work, please forward this free newsletter to friends or acquaintances who are interested in investing in tech and growth stocks.
Best,
Stefan Waldhauser
Disclaimer: This newsletter is an expression of opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please note the legal information.
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