The U.S. auto industry's got big trouble

Greetings from Motown!

China’s glut of auto production capacity poses a significant risk to the incumbent automakers of North America, Europe and Japan. Overcapacity has become a fighting word in the trade clash between the United States and China.

But the United States is headed for an auto production overcapacity problem of its own, as the latest installment of Friend of the Rodeo Warren Browne’s exclusive Vehicle Performance Tracker shows.

You may have seen announcements from Toyota, Honda and Hyundai that they plan to increase U.S. vehicle production. That’s good news for people who want to get hired at the new factories, but not so good for incumbents in the North American market that trying to boost prices to offset President Trump’s ever-shifting array of import taxes.

And if Trump leads the United States into a trade war with Canada, that will put more pressure on the U.S. industry.

Warren’s latest analysis adds it all up, and the results aren’t pretty for the industry.

There’s a lot of exclusive data here for High Speed Rodeo paid subscribers. You can get access to it all for a surprisingly reasonable price by clicking that orange button.

Thanks! Here’s Warren:

Executive Summary—Vehicle Performance Tracker _TM

Trump Administration’s Goal: “We will bring our auto-making to the record levels of 37 years ago, and we’ll be able to do it very quickly through tariffs and other smart use of certain things that we have that other countries don’t”¹.

Q2-2026 Performance: Negative. Progress remains slow and cumbersome. At this point, expected performance remains below the Inflation Reduction Act baseline for the next few years.

Key Takeaways in Q2 Report

• U.S. light vehicle sales and production have stalled in the first half of 2026. Minimal improvements are expected before the end of the year.