Money talked, and nobody walked

Well, that didn’t take long.

It was only three weeks ago that the Ducks, challenged to open their corporate checkbook wider than they’d planned in order to retain a foundational player, matched the five-year, $90-million offer sheet that Leo Carlsson had signed with the Philadelphia Flyers. The 21-year-old center’s $18-million average annual value set a record for an NHL player. His statistics might not have said he was an $18-million player but the market said he was, and so he is. But more on that a bit later.

The record set by Carlsson was toppled on Wednesday, when the San Jose Sharks signed face-of-the-franchise Macklin Celebrini, who turned 20 last month, to a five year extension worth $94 million. That’s an average of $18.8 million. His new deal will kick in beginning with the 2027-28 season, so for what it’s worth, Carlsson can at least claim the highest average annual value during the upcoming 2026-27 season.

Celebrini clearly is special. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, he scored 63 points as a rookie and followed that by scoring a franchise-record 115 points last season, becoming only the sixth teenager to surpass 100 points in an NHL season. The others are Wayne Gretzky (137 in 1979-80 after the Oilers made the jump to the NHL from the World Hockey Assn.), Dale Hawerchuk (103 in 1981-82), Mario Lemieux (100 in 1984-85), Jimmy Carson (107 points for the Kings in 1987-88), and Sidney Crosby (102 points in 2005-06 and 120 in 2006-07). Pretty good company, eh? Also last season, as the youngest player on Canada’s Olympic hockey team in Milan, Celebrini led all tournament scorers with five goals in six games as Canada lost the gold medal game to the United States.

Celebrini finished fourth in league scoring and fourth in most valuable player voting, as he almost single-handedly ended a San Jose non-playoff streak that has reached seven seasons. So yeah, Celebrini can play. And there’s every reason to expect he will only get better as he gains experience and as the Sharks build a stronger team around him.

The logical question is whether any NHL player is worth $18.8 million per season. It’s easy to argue that by every criteria, Celebrini is worth it.

The Sharks will pay him not only for what he has done but will possibly underpay him for all that he might yet do, given that the new deal carries him through one year of eligibility for unrestricted free agency while the salary cap continues to rise. He gives fans hope for better days ahead, and his flair and obvious skills make him a strong and marketable presence for the league. There’s no way to put a price tag on that.

Also, the amount the Sharks paid to secure him is less than the maximum he could have commanded. He could have earned 20% of the team’s cap total, which is expected to hit $113.5 million in 2027-28. Instead, he and his agent, Los Angeles-based Pat Brisson, gave the Sharks room to maneuver and to continue to add pieces to complement him. Not that Celebrini needs a GoFundMe after potentially leaving money on the table, but it’s interesting that he didn’t go for a maximum payday that might have limited Grier’s future moves. Celebrini can get that big payday when his extension ends, after the 2031-32 season. At that point, he will be only 26.

His signing came a little over a week after Chicago Blackhawks franchise player Connor Bedard, another prominent, young superstar, signed a five-year, $75 million deal. A new soap opera: The young and the Rich.

The next frontier for the NHL is a signing for an average annual value of $20 million, which certainly isn’t far off. To check current values and teams’ salary cap space, Puckpedia.com is a good resource.

“In just two seasons as a teenager in the National Hockey League and on the international stage, Macklin has established himself as one of the premier players in the world,” Sharks general manager Mike Grier said in a statement after Celebrini’s signing. “We are extremely excited to have him secured and committed as the centerpiece of a core of talented players in San Jose.

“As we continue our goal of building a team capable of annually competing for the Stanley Cup, we want to thank Macklin and his representatives for a respectful negotiation process, and acknowledge the flexibility they have provided to the team in how we allocate future dollars towards the team being constructed around Macklin.”

Celebrini praised Grier and club owner Hasso Plattner for showing him “proof that we are building something special here” over the past two years. He added, “My teammates and I are ready to take another step toward the ultimate goal of bringing a Stanley Cup to this city and its incredible fans. I can't wait to get going.”

First, they have to get into the playoffs. But at least they’re on the right track. Cue the upbeat music.

There weren’t the same warm and fuzzy vibes surrounding the Ducks and Carlsson. And while the Ducks have stockpiled an impressive amount of young talent—and actually reached the second round of the playoffs last season—general manager Pat Verbeek’s mismanagement of his many assets leaves him open to questions about whether they will be able to build off what was a breakthrough last season.

Verbeek had to match the Flyers’ offer sheet to Carlsson, even though Verbeek acknowledged the numbers were so high that “we did not see that one coming.” The compensation would have been four first-round draft picks, but with Carlsson accelerating the Flyers’ improvements, those picks would likely have been late in the opening round.

Players like Carlsson don’t come around often. The No. 2 pick in 2023 had a strong start last season before a thigh lesion required surgery and still finished with career-bests in goals (29) and points (67) in 70 games. He was impressive in the playoffs, scoring four goals and 11 points in 12 games. He’s a legitimate No. 1 center who has size and finesse and is strong defensively, though he hasn’t been as consistent as he should be. That’s fixable.

In an ideal world, Verbeek would have locked up Carlsson before he hit restricted free agency. But Verbeek has a history of playing hardball in negotiations with young players, to the point where Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras missed the start of training camp in 2023 and Mason McTavish missed the start of camp in 2025. All are now former Ducks. No coincidence there. Verbeek might have saved some money, but he lost a lot in terms of goodwill.

Carlsson shouldn’t be criticized for signing the Flyers’ offer sheet. Every NHL player is a ruptured Achilles tendon or torn-up knee or traumatic brain injury away from enforced retirement. Someone was willing to pay him a staggering sum. He agreed. The Ducks matched. And good for Flyers general manager Daniel Briere for using every tool at his disposal to try to make his team better.

In the meantime, Verbeek is now in an uncomfortable position and faces a lot of financial juggling to get under next season’s $104 million cap. (Teams can exceed the cap by 10% during the off-season but must be compliant when the next season begins).

To head off an offer sheet that might have lured defenseman Pavel Mintyukov away, Verbeek had to pay him $36 million over five years, an average annual value of $7.2 million. Defenseman Jackson LaCombe’s eight-year, $72-million contract kicks in next season. Most importantly, Verbeek must still sign restricted free agent forward Cutter Gauthier, who led the Ducks with 41 goals and 69 points last season. Gauthier’s price undoubtedly climbed when Carlsson signed, but Verbeek, per puckpedia.com, has little wiggle room.

In addition, after losing most of their defense this off-season (John Carlson, Jacob Trouba, and Radko Gudas left via free agency and Owen Zellweger was traded to Buffalo for a prospect and a second-round draft pick), the Ducks will have minimal experience in their defense corps. Not that changing their defense is entirely a bad thing, given that they gave up 288 goals last season, the fourth-highest total in the NHL. Verbeek is counting on youngsters Tristan Luneau and Tyson Hinds to step into big roles, and that’s a gamble because it often takes longer for young defensemen to develop than it does for young forwards. If the defense doesn’t mesh, Verbeek won’t be able to easily fix things through taking on additional salary, even if he can get some cap space by persuading other teams to take any combination of veteran forwards Frank Vatrano, Alex Killorn, or Chris Kreider off his hands and his payroll.

I’ve seen some predictions that the Ducks will be worse off next season than they were last season. The reconfigured defense alone is reason enough to raise some doubts. It’s also valid to wonder if Carlsson will be burdened by pressure to justify his salary and if that will adversely affect him on the ice; he will be constantly scrutinized, talked about, and written about, his worth constantly debated. That’s a lot, even for someone as poised as he seems to be. Yet, it’s also possible that he will take that as motivation to raise his game another level.

The Ducks still have enough top-tier talent up front—and the promise of continued growth by LaCombe on defense—to expect they will make the playoffs. Verbeek’s miscalculation in not signing Carlsson sooner, and the salary cap consequences that resulted, likely will cost them a chance to make the kind of significant progress they should have been able to achieve by this point of a long rebuild.