Welcome to Office Hours. Come in! This is a regular subscribers-only column where I share what I’m reading and watching, and respond to questions from readers.
A few days ago The Bell ran a piece, based on a Kremlin-linked source, warning that Putin’s circle sees Ukraine’s long-range strikes as an escalation and fears “the prospect of using tactical nuclear weapons is approaching.” The source compared it to the fall of 2022, when Russia was last said to be seriously considering nukes.
If that’s the comparison, I’m not that worried. Autumn 2022 was a worse moment for Russia and it backed away from nuclear use. But the nuclear alarm cycle runs on its own logic. Every few months, a Kremlin-adjacent source says something ominous, especially when Russia is not doing well, and Western analysts have to take it seriously, and editors run it because you can’t ignore nuclear warnings.
Remember when HIMARS was supposed to cross a red line, ATACMS …
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