Deciders
“The best thing I did was to choose the right heroes.”- Warren Buffett Asia trip reflections I had three vivid experiences while travelling this summer. All three made me think about heroes: who we celebrate, what we celebrate them for and what those choices say about us. The first was at the Forbidden City in Beijing, which is built on a scale of grandeur unlike anything I had seen before. Our…
"How do we stay in the room and hear things that are difficult? How do we make sure the parameters around conversation are ones that are open to conversations?" - Rabbi Charley Baginsky Apparently as you get older time speeds. I have felt the exact opposite so far this year and it seems from conversations with friends and family that I’m not the only one. When I remember to, just before summer…
"There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance." — J.K. Galbraith A recent podcast guest (The CIO Chair) guest suggested reading "The Great Crash 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith. This is a finance classic written in 1955 and chronicles the actors and actions of the Wall Street Crash. It is hard not to see the parallels with the…
"Reason is and ought only to be the slave of the passions." — David Hume When I started writing about decision-making 163 blogs ago, I started from the perspective that we reach our views through a mostly “rational” process. We gather evidence then weigh it, apply challenge to it, and only then conclude. Emotions were a fly in the ointment that we should acknowledge and weigh. I no longer believe…
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H. L. Mencken We are now near enough 10 years post the Brexit referendum. Brexit was a rare act of direct democracy and its intention to solve, once and for all the "European question" in hindsight has ended up creating more polarisation and not helped stem the loss of trust in political institutions. I…
We venerate the Magna Carta and the rights enshrined by the US Constitution, but rarely do we consider what they rest on. When smaller groups of people acted as tribes or villages, the rules were made clear by constant enforcement but also within a framework of expectations on people i.e. responsibilities. As villages have grown into mega-cities and governments influence the lives of people from a…
Much of the recent focus has been on private credit, but the more consequential developments may be unfolding in private equity. The latest Bain Global Private Equity Report provides a great overview of how the PE system is faring as a whole. (Global Private Equity Report 2026 | Bain Company). Across podcast conversations on The CIO Chair (The CIO Chair), a recurring theme has been the role of…
“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” - George Bernard Shaw We spend way too much time talking about the state or governments just because they are big and noisy. The types of questions we ask are: what it should provide us in need? What it should invest in? What it should stop or regulate? The state really does matter and has been invested strong powers but the state is…
“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable” – Seneca The deep state “The deep state” or the “The blob” are both colourful descriptions of a deep network of well positioned people with an agenda. This cabal can sway governments no matter what happens at the polling booth. At first this seems like conspiratorial claptrap, the ramblings of those who have spent too much time…
“I honestly believe it is better to know nothing than to know what ain’t so.” - Josh Billings Uncertainty is a fact of life . It permeates every part of our existence and cannot be avoided. We face uncertain health, business prospects and ups and downs in our environment. Today’s blog is about what uncertainty does to us, why we sometimes end up with bad outcomes under uncertainty and what…
“The function of leadership is to produce more leaders, not more followers.” — Ralph Nader One of the most important lessons from the CIO Chair podcasts is appreciating just how much of the decision‑making is done before a CIO signs off on anything. Our interviewees emphasised that doing their role involved shaping systems. There does not appear to be a one-size-fits-all playbook. Each institution…
“Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.” - Christian Lous Lange Each technological shift produces two predictable reactions. Fairy-tale forecasts and fear. The fairy-tale is that AI will do everything for us and when combined with robots will make humans able to enjoy leisure with a guaranteed income stream. The fear is for a world where we are physically and mentally redundant and…
“Private credit: Smoke, yes, but how much fire?” - Jim Reid The current torrent of headlines around the lack of exits in Private Equity and Software/redemption risks in Private Credit might make it feel like Asset Owners have been caught up in Illiquid asset marketing hype. That misses the point about the role of Private markets in a long-term portfolio. Background Through the conversations I have…
" Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards ." — Søren Kierkegaard Graduates and their families are currently navigating the competitive environment for graduate jobs. According to the numbers I have seen in the UK and the US, the ratios of graduates to jobs is currently higher than normal and the environment has weakened over the last 3 years. If you are facing this…
“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” — George Orwell If there is one reason (and if you are an investor, I hope there will be more than one) to listen to the CIO Chair podcasts, it is to hear credible people straight talking. There is irony that straight talking is a 'selling point', but it was an…
“The reality is I'm an investor. My job really is about looking after the team that's delivering investment advice and investment management to the pension fund. People, investments, long-term strategy, engaging with the client and keeping the show on the road. Making sure that we're a well run business that will keep the FCA happy as well as our members.” - Simon Pilcher Well here it is. Five…
Podcasts are like Marmite. If you mention the word to someone, either their eyes glaze over and they try to fake an urgent call, or you see Disneyland-like excitement. I am firmly in the latter category. Whilst they remain free (for now), I believe that podcasts are an incredible and accessible way to hear some of the best summaries and more fringe opinions out there. The formats are so broad.…
“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.” — Henry David Thoreau What a year 2025 was! I wish all of you a wise 2026. I am one of those people who has an annual process of reflection. For me, it is an opportunity to think and set some directions I am truly excited about. This year for example I would like to drink my tea without any honey and finally sort out my hedges.…
We all think we’re neutral. Seeing things objectively. It's always someone else who takes the extreme view or is biased, impractical or even worse corrupt. Whilst in politics the circus continues, what about in a more objective world like investing? What is neutrality? In investment land it usually means: I’m laying out what we know without forcing a conclusion – yet. In a noisy world, that is a…
“We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”― Jean-Claude Juncker Zoso Davies, a credit strategist and Hartej Singh, a Credit Investor write a four-part series arguing that balancing the books should be the UK government’s number one priority. With living standards, immigration, climate change, and choppier geopolitical waters dominating national…