Five Setups and a Hedge

Most of what I do is bottoms-up SMID-cap equity research. Filtered through a 20-plus analyst source network and a structured framework that screens for hit rate, conviction quality, alpha contribution, signal differentiation, and process integrity. Most names that come through the filter don’t make it into the portfolio.

The macro backdrop matters here. The 30-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.12 percent, the highest since June 2007. Oil is up roughly 80 percent year to date on the Iran conflict. Kevin Warsh just got confirmed as Fed Chair. Core PCE prints 3.5 percent against core CPI at 2.6 percent. The bond market is repricing a second wave of inflation that the Fed is currently looking through.
The long end isn’t cooperating with the rate cuts.

A handful of names came through the filter this week that share something unusual. They sit in completely different sectors. They have different catalyst structures. They wouldn’t show up in the same screen if you ran one. But they each carry asymmetric setups that don’t depend on the same macro outcome, which means evaluating them together actually shows you how a concentrated book can be built to work across multiple paths.

Five setups.

One of the five is a position I’m loading up on Monday. Three are setups I’m taking 0.5 percent starter positions in and scaling from there based on confirming catalysts. One is a watchlist name where I want to see more before I commit capital.

The full work is below the paywall. Theses, catalysts, position sizing, and what I’m watching on each name. Plus how the five setups fit together if you’re building a concentrated book that has to work across multiple macro outcomes.