Welcome to the quagmire

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https://greggeasterbrook.substack.com/aed498c3

Mid-March, six weeks into the joint American-Israeli attack on Iran, President Donald Trump declared from the Oval Office, “We’ve won this war. This war has been won.” A final peace deal, Trump said, is “very close.”

Months later the sides are still shooting at each other.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, officers brought along dress uniforms because they expected a victory parade through Kyiv would occur almost immediately. Four years later, endless war.

A pattern of history is to expect quick, decisive victory and get instead long wars of attrition.

When the American Civil War began, Abraham Lincoln called up militiamen for 90-day enlistments. The president thought no troops would be needed beyond 90 days because the South would yield quickly. Four years of bloody hell followed.

When Germany invaded France in August 1914, the German military expected it would take six weeks to capture Paris, winning France’s surrender. Four years of bloody hell followed.

When German bombing of London began in September 1940, Hitler expected to take the British surrender in a few weeks.

Hitler hosted Soviet foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov in Berlin in November 1940, during the weird alliance between dictatorships that preceded their cataclysmic war. Red hammer-and-sickle flags hung on Berlin’s streets to greet the Soviet delegation. Hitler told Molotov the war was already over. Molotov is said to have replied, “If the war is already over, why are we meeting in a bomb shelter?”

Later, June 1941, Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The Wehrmacht took along no winter clothing because its high command expected to capture Moscow in two months, winning Russia’s surrender. Four years of bloody hell followed.

When Iraq invaded Iran in September 1980, Saddam Hussein said Tehran would surrender within weeks. Eight years of bloody hell followed. Many similar examples can be cited.

Usually it’s the attacker with unrealistic expectations of quick victory. You tell yourself (and tell your political system) the other side is weak and will pale before your power.

No sane person would say, “Let’s start a war that drags on for years of awful suffering with nothing accomplished.” You tell yourself it will be over quickly with big gains and glorious triumph.

History is replete with examples of cities lasting through sieges much longer than expected. When the siege of Stalingrad began in September 1942 the German commander, Friedrich von Paulus, said the city would fall in no more than 10 days. Instead after months of awful suffering on both sides, von Paulus surrendered his remaining force to the Reds.

History is replete with examples of nations lasting much longer than expected through invasions, bombing and blockades. For example in 1991, the United States and United Kingdom bombed Iraq round-the-clock for six weeks, expecting Saddam Hussein would have no choice but to withdraw his army from Kuwait. He didn’t.

Later Iraqi forces withdrew from Kuwait after losing a rare quick, decisive land action.

Nations under attack last longer than expected, fighting devolves into wars of attrition, because elites on the sure-to-lose side do not themselves suffer. By spring of 1945, with half of Germany burned to the ground and Soviet forces closing in on Berlin, Nazi elites were still living well and drawing grandiose plans.

Recently both House and Senate passed concurrent resolutions saying the 1973 War Powers Resolution should apply to the situation with Iran. If so, Trump would need specific authorization from Congress to continue bombing or blockading that nation. Since a concurrent resolution is an expression of sentiment, not legislation, the votes were symbolic, though did undercut the White House position.

Trump replied on Truth Social, zinging the “four Republican losers” and “Dumocrats” who voted for the resolution in the Senate. Attempts to turn the resolution into legislation failed.

Just as there is a long history of belligerents expecting quick victory and instead getting quagmire, there is a long history of presidents trying to end-run Congress as Trump is trying.