The Democracy Gray Rhino

Last week’s post on immigration and crime was a real AHA moment for me.

I have long been aware that polls consistently show a majority of Americans think immigration is a good thing. I’ve also long been aware of the risk perception gap when it comes to public safety: only 5 percent of Americans realize that immigrants are less likely to commit violent crimes than citizens are.

But somehow I had not put the two together until last week: Even with widespread misperceptions around public safety, Americans still overall approve of immigration. So, although closing the risk perception gap is a worthy goal, it is not the most important step toward getting immigration policy right.

The meta gray rhino –the real root cause of failing immigration policies—is America’s dysfunctional political system.

Despite long-standing, widespread support for constructive immigration reform over the years, only partial fixes have materialized. The Trump administration is trying its best to undo even modest advances like the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program which granted temporary conditional residency to certain immigrants brought here as children.

The oldest political trick in the book for distracting citizens from bad government is to blame immigrants, foreigners, and other countries. I have been following this theme in one way or another since my very first book, WHY THE COCKS FIGHT, about tensions between the Dominican Republic and Haiti. While at the time -the first edition came out in 1999—I mentioned parallels to the US-Mexico border, today’s situation is a grim reminder of how universal the book’s message remains. That is especially so given the administration’s singling out of Haitians here with slanderous and dehumanizing rhetoric.

Immigration, while important and dear to my own heart, is only one of the many gray rhino issues that the United States will only be able to address effectively once it faces up to our governance problems.

Gray rhino is all about risk recognition and response.

In that context, the big question is what can be done –and what IS being done? Top of mind: Changing broken political party dynamics and changing the mechanics of the system. Efforts exist on both of these counts, but need more support.

Sometimes the best answer is to let the gray rhino charge and trample what is no longer working. By that, I mean the two party system –or at least what the two main parties have become.

The Republican Party my grandparents supported stopped existing at least a decade ago. Fiscal responsibility? Limited government? Professed moral values that at least roughly matched reality in some cases?

The Democratic Party has a lot to answer for too: power-hungry dinosaurs reluctant to engage rising generations, timid and complacent elected officials, cooption by the political consulting complex, and failure to articulate a clear, powerful message.

What we have is two parties often dominated by the loudest and most active members. The drown out the larger number of voters who understand that democracy means seeking common ground and not always getting everything you want. Many of these have simply dropped out.

A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 43 percent of voters are unhappy with both parties [paywall]. “Eighty percent of dissatisfied voters said the economic and political system needed major changes or to be torn down entirely, and 77 percent said the economic system was generally unfair,” Ruth Igielnik reported.

In January, a record 45 percent of Americans surveyed by Gallup self-identified as independents.

My ideal would be three or four parties, with the center amply represented but not so powerful that any party can take a majority for granted. New party aspirations need to start bottom up: NOT with a presidential run. A third party president would be a disaster if Congress stays dominated by the existing two parties.

I recognize, however, that this scenario is not likely to happen any time soon.

In the meantime, several mechanical fixes can work wonders.

Ranked Choice Voting. It takes time for politicians’ and voters’ habits to change. And there will be missteps along the way. New York City friends have complained that ranked-choice voting got them Eric Adams, the hugely unpopular now-former Mayor. But we also saw candidates joining together in the most recent NYC mayoral campaign -a very positive development.

Some people claim that it’s too complicated for many voters. But give Americans at least some credit. Picking your top three or five choices is not that difficult. In fact, it’s way easier than the preparation voters often have to do for long lists of judges (Yes, I mean you, Chicago…).

Break the Grip of the Electoral College. This obsolete system has distorted election results, steamrolling the principle of one person, one vote. No wonder so many Americans feel that their votes don’t count. Some proposals already circulating would de facto break its control by requiring states to cast their votes in proportion to the popular vote.

Campaign Finance Reform. Get corporate money out of campaigns however possible.

Strengthen Election Protection Laws. Finally, many Americans’ very reasonable fears of the Trump administration’s plans to interfere with future elections make clear that we need stronger laws to protect elections and voters. Democracy Docket, an important source of legal information on elections and democracy, has proposed several voting laws that states should enact to protect voters by preventing the federal government and other third parties from challenging voter registrations, intimidating voters, or otherwise interfere with elections.

Efforts are going on across the United States on all of these issues. But that’s not all that people are doing to stand up for the principles we learned in school.

The No Kings protests in June 2025, October 2025, and March 2026 each drew between 5 and 9 million marchers –roughly 1.5 to 2.6 percent of the population taking to the streets, with many more supporting the protests in other ways. The marches have familiarized many Americans with the 3.5 percent rule: that no dictator, actual or wannabe can last once 3.5 percent of the population engages in regular non-violent civil disobedience.

Writing for Compass, the newsletter of the Institute for Current World Affairs, Greg Satell argues that the last thing America needs is more marches. That sounds like an exaggeration intended to make a point, but a well-taken exaggeration. “Free societies do not survive because people occasionally flood the streets,” Satell writes. “They survive because citizens are able to build institutions over time worthy of public trust and strong enough to resist those who would capture them.”

Satell cites Gene Sharp’s list of 198 measures of nonviolent action as a guide for other things people can do to support making America not just America again but hopefully fixing the problems that got us to this difficult place.

Many civil society organizations already have been speaking out regularly in defense of rule of law and against corruption. New ones are emerging, like Astronauts for America –a nonpartisan group formed by more than 100 retired NASA astronauts to support upholding constitutional principles, evidence-based decision making, the rule of law, and other fundamental bedrocks of the America many of us were raised to believe existed.

The wheels of justice move slowly, but legal challenges are starting to work.

As of June 1, plaintiffs had filed 317 legal challenges to various administration policies, particularly Executive orders. The number of victories has been growing, including the symbolically powerful order to remove Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center.

Widespread bipartisan objections to Trump’s plan to create a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” –an irony-oblivious euphemism for funneling money to January 6 participants— led to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announcing that the Department of Justice would scrap the fund.

Congress served up a rare defeat on June 3 when the House of Representatives approved a war powers resolution to end the US conflict with Iran. This follows a Senate vote in mid-May to advance a similar resolution.

The Iran war votes reflected a small but growing number of Republicans starting to stand up to Trump. Those include GOP incumbents who have little, if anything, to lose in their remaining months in office after having been defeated by Trump-endorsed primary challengers –yet another “own goal” by Trump.

Someone complained recently on a friend’s social media thread that “nobody is doing anything” to push back.

From the very partial list above, it should be clear that this charge is untrue.

It also is dangerous. Who wants to be the person to stick their neck out when everyone else is afraid? People respond to peer pressure. That’s why it is so important to recognize that many, many people and organizations are doing something. Not just “something,” but quite a lot –though it’s not yet enough.

M. Gessen, who has written eloquently and bravely about the former Soviet Union, recently penned a powerful piece in the New York Times about lessons that Americans can take from Hungary’s toppling of Victor Orbán.

I wrote briefly above about the problems in our political parties –which extends to Congress—that are threatening not just the guardrails but the essence of America’s political system and policy making.

Another huge gap is the response of a large part of the business community, despite some courageous leaders. More on that next week.