America’s “Urban Mine” Just Got a Government Guarantee

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Let’s dive in…

Last week we did a deep dive into the issue of critical minerals, particularly their role in national security. By way of quick review.

1. The term “critical mineral” is a designation governments use for raw materials that are both economically essential and at risk of supply disruption. The exact list varies depending on the country, but the concept generally rests on two criteria:

Economic importance: the mineral is a necessary input for key industries (defense, energy, electronics, manufacturing) with no easy substitute.

Supply risk: the country has little or no domestic production and depends heavily on a small number of foreign sources, often geopolitical rivals or unstable regions.

2. Critical minerals have innumerable uses, but from a national security perspective their roles in things like semiconductors, fiber optics, lasers, missiles systems, drone technology, munitions, nuclear energy, etc. is what makes them critical.

3. Over the last 50 years, China has built up a stranglehold on both the production and, more importantly, the refining of critical minerals, holding roughly 70% of global refining capacity across 19 of the 20 most critical materials essential for high technology and defense technology capabilities.

4. This issue is massive, extremely complicated, and represents an existential threat to the U.S.’s status as a superpower.

The issue is massive in that it is measured in trillions of dollars when we account for the exploration, development, production, refining, processing and transportation of critical minerals as well as their “downstream” effects on various industries.

The issue is extremely complicated in that the U.S. has designated 60 minerals as critical minerals each with its own uses, production issues, refining/processing issues, sourcing issues, etc.

For example, while at a critical minerals conference a member of the intelligence community commented to me that the U.S. located an antimony mine in Nigeria that could supply U.S. antimony needs, located a shipping company that could bring the resource to the U.S., but that the Trump administration had recently imposed a 50% tariff on all goods from Nigeria rendering the solution uneconomical. As a result, the Department of War (DoW) now needs to apply for a tariff exception at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and the Department of Commerce… a process that can take months, if not years.

The issue of critical minerals represents an existential threat to the U.S.’s role as a superpower. Critical minerals are essential to industries closely related to national security, defense capabilities, high technology, and economic leverage. If the U.S. were to lose access to critical minerals, it could be in danger of losing its status as the world’s superpower.