Reflections on poker

I’m doing a different kind of reflection on my poker career today. Since the beginning of the year, poker has, with the exception of a couple weeks ago, felt the way it used to. Better, actually. I’m getting a mix of cards—a normal distribution of high and low cards. I’m getting bad beats but giving them just as often. I’m reading other players really well, and I’m having deep runs in tournaments. And for the first time ever, I’m actually profitable. It’s a nice feeling. I just finished a WSOP circuit tournament (not the main one; smaller but still prestigious). I’m in line waiting for my payout check and for Carrie to meet me at the Horseshoe Casino for a dinner celebration. My brain is fried from two straight 12-hour days of poker. I feel happy but also numb. Here’s what happened.

Note: if you want a reference for poker lingo, click here.

On Sunday, I entered a tournament and busted out after a few hands when my flopped set ran into a rivered straight. I re-entered, and after a few hands, my flush ran into a bigger flush and I again busted out. I tried a third time, and after another few hands, my lock flush ran into a full house.

Normally, I’d be angry and depressed at this point, but since my nice WSOP run, it’s been easier to shrug off the bad luck and bad beats. So I entered one more late afternoon tournament.

Soon after entering, I got pocket Qs. A short stack shoved. A big stack shoved. I took a chance and also shoved. They both had AK, and I hit a Q on the turn (not that I needed it).

After playing for hours, the cards continued to run in my favor. Also, I’ve never played more consistently than I have been recently. I’m also reading my opponents really well. After a while I had the largest stack at my table and possibly in the entire tournament. I texted Carrie to say, “I think I can come home now and still be in the money.” She advised me to stick around and keep playing, so I did. 😊

I found it interesting that at this tournament I saw some very good players make some really bad bets and lose their stacks. These players built up really big stacks then started raising pre-flop every hand. That’s not necessarily bad, but you need to listen to Kenny Rogers. I saw a number of these players suddenly think they were invincible, play some mediocre hands, try to bluff their opponent with a giant bet, and lose much of their stack and even bust out. It’s interesting how much discipline is required to play with a big stack. I learned this in one of my first major tournaments about 10 years ago, at the Bicycle Casino outside Los Angeles. I found myself on Day 2 with the biggest stack in the tournament. I was happily over-betting every hand, which worked until it didn’t—one player with a great hand called my bet and took a big chunk of my stack. I learned my lesson, but too late for that tournament.

On another note, one of the hands in this tournament that stuck in my craw was when I was holding that big stack and got dealt K♦9♦. It’s such a pretty hand. One player min raised; another called; I called. Then a short stack shoved. I wanted to call but a big stack shoved first, so I folded. The flop was KK9. I had made the right decision, but still I kept thinking about it. As they say in poker (and in life, actually), getting a good result doesn’t mean you made the right decision and getting a bad result doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision. The better poker players know this. I learned about it in Stanford grad school from a friend who was taking a class in Decision Theory. That simple statement was one of the most impactful of my life.

At about 11:15 PM, we were 30 players from the money.

At about 11:40 PM, we had 20 to go.

At about 1:00 AM, we were in the money with 36 players left from 243 entries.

At about 2:00 AM, we finished Day 1, and I had the third largest stack going into Day 2.

Day 2 started today at 1 PM and immediately began going well for me as I maintained my large stack while others busted out. When we got down to two tables (18 players), I started losing close races until my stack was short at about 12 big blinds. For example, I lost a big 3-way pot when I rivered a K-high straight but another player rivered the lock flush.

Eventually, in the big blind position, I got pocket 9s. It ran out just as I imagined. Everyone folded to the small blind who had a giant stack and loved to bet a lot. She shoved. I called. She had 56. I doubled up.

Still, after a while of running card dead, my stack was again very short. I got A 10 under the gun. I shoved. The same giant stack called with J7. Neither of us hit, so I doubled up. She was one of those players I was talking about who gets too cocky with a big stack and starts betting hands she should be folding.

I was able to play very tight and keep a small stack. With 11 players left, I got pocket Qs. The same giant stack raised from 20K to 40K. I reraised to 80K and she folded.

Shortly after that, I got pocket 8s. One player raised. Three others called, so I called. The flop was 57Q. Everyone checked to the giant stack who raised to 120K. Based on how she had been betting with poor hands just to intimidate the other players, I shoved for 250K. I was right; she had nothing. She folded, and I suddenly had a decent stack.

Then I got A7 and the flop was A75. I got the giant stack to put in a lot of chips for me! That allowed me to make it to the final table!

The final table. The player with the giant stack who kept over-betting is in the hoodie on the right.

The giant stack was no longer the giant stack as she kept throwing away chips and was the first at the final table to bust out. With 9 players left, a short stack (the older gentleman with the baseball cap) shoved. I called with pocket 7s. He had been playing very tight, but his stack was very small. I was hoping he had AK, AQ, or a smaller pair. But noooo. He had pocket Qs. Neither of us improved, so I lost half my stack. 🙁

A little later, I got AK. A short stack shoved. I called. He had A 10. A K came on the river, though I didn’t need it. He busted, leaving 8 players.

Then another player busted, leaving 7 players.

I won a monster hand with AK when the board ran out AA8A4. Suspecting that the other player had a big pair in his hand, I bet big on the river, and the other player paid me off with his pocket Js.

Then there were 6 players left.

Then 5 players left.

Then 4 players left.

One player had a shorter stack than me (in the BOSS T-shirt in the picture), but he had started out as the largest stack when we came to the final table. He was an excellent player. But then this happened. He got into a big hand with the other big stack at the table and tried a gigantic bluff on the river. The other player thought for a while but couldn’t figure out what this player would have, except a bluff. When you bluff, you need to have a story in your head. If you want the other player to believe your bluff, the imaginary cards need to support how you had bet all along. For example, you can’t pretend you have two aces in your hand if you didn’t raise before the flop. Any player with pocket As would raise before the flop (with some rare exceptions). The other player eventually called, and the BOSS lost most of his stack. He then bet too big on a subsequent hand and lost more chips to another player. I was the one who took him down when he shoved with K 10 and I called with AQ.

There were only 3 players left when I got A♣10♣ in the big blind with the shortest stack of the three. The big stack raised. I reraised. He reraised again. I shoved. He called with... pocket As! Oh no! I was hoping to get a flush, a straight, or three 10s, but instead I busted out in 3^rd place. Still, it was the second biggest cash of my poker career (second to my WSOP win last week).

So I’m reflecting... Are the bad beats the normal scenario and I happen to have had a lucky streak this year or are the cashes, final tables, and wins the normal scenario and poker will once again be fun and profitable? I’ll keep reflecting on this while I take a break from poker to unwind, and we’ll see how it goes.

Bob Zeidman is a high-stakes recreational poker player. He created Good Beat Poker, a free online poker site using patented technology for audio and video—see and hear the other players at the table if you choose.