Recent content on goodalexander
Useful Gibberish Writing in the era of AI is difficult; it requires knowing and bowing to your own inadequacy in the face of the machine. Take, for example: I built a simple scoring mechanic to improve my writing. I could have done this with regard to any aspect of my life. The idea: you make a draft. You score it. You pass the criticisms back to the AI. The AI improves it.
Money, capital, and the tribute you already pay.
Research acceptance gates, missing warrants, methodology, and update operations for the Doom Index.
Federal debt and unfunded obligations, measured against household income and public-company earnings.
Putting numbers around goblin preferences in advancing OpenAI models.
Find forbidden fruit while others starve to death trying to make the perfect fork
Part 2 in AI generated text experiment designed to cause extreme consciousness changes in consumers
Part 1 in AI generated text experiment designed to cause extreme consciousness changes in consumers
That which was shall be once more, if not at first then just before
My simplified thesis for a never ending speculative mania that is now a matter of national security
understanding the underlying drivers of the Doom Thesis and what to do about it on a personal level
understanding the underlying drivers of the Doom Thesis and what to do about it on a personal level
On the fundamental role of building an economic network
Life is worth living. Even when I was down - really terribly. Had no status. No work. Entire life in shambles. Wanted to continue the next day. Was left in a situation where I had to confront the basic question, “Do I want to keep going?” Later I was able to articulate the ‘why’ The expression “The only thing certain in life is death and taxes”. There’s a third certainty. That death and taxes -…
How the Murad Meta inevitably transitions to AI cults
A year in, core qualitative evaluation principles for both own projects / investments
Monetizing the ouroborous economy
AI as a sociocultural movement that enables solo entrepreneurs and bootstrappers
A short story about Kona Blue and other esoteric topics
The end of nostalgia
Crypto With Cash Flow. Fleeing The ARKK
brain drain innate to how small the real AI workforce is
First Coin Deep Dive: Bittensor/ Tao
how to survive and thrive in the post nation-state AI driven reality
going to talk a bit about some things I’ve learned about rigged markets, signal extraction and how to fit market manipulation into your overall mosaic Rule 1: understanding you’re a gremlin not a genius. if you’re reading this chances are you’re not as smart as quants so don’t try to be. I practice a very special variety of quantitative trading, called “find…
longer form thoughts on crypto. Lots of bearishness. I remain bullish. Why: If Trump is elected, all bets are off - SEC runs on a skeleton staff, Gensler is fired, he intervenes in the Fed to cut rates. Odds are at least 50% Trump wins. Any concern about Trump’s stance towards crypto should be dismissed by his NFT sales and appreciation galas for NFT holders (haha). Concerns about Biden…
My Investment Philosophy as Best as I can explain. dfuq do I actually do A lot of people think I’m “insane” or “on drugs”, per Twitter discourse .I want to explain what I do for a living and how it all fits together. Everything Is Rigged First - I believe the market is rigged. There isn’t a printer that goes brr. Central Banks buy assets - bonds, and sometimes ETFs. Credit instruments and equities…
George Soros wrote a book more people should read, “The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The 2008 Crash and What It Means”. I’ll summarize the salient points here and apply it to what’s happening with my own interpretation. Soros thought that his “Theory of Reflexivity” was a good way to make money in markets but might not have any broader application to society. That is until 2008 when he came…
AI Good. Fiat Bad. What’s your plan, anon? What Is The Left Curve Most internet denizens know this meme by now… but, for reference It pays to keep it really simple. The Morpheus Bull A crypto bull market is arriving. It’s time to dial down the spiritual thought, the hobbies, the relationships. The meditations on what it means to be human. And focus on making money. Because the nature…
Why am I doing what I am doing? A direct summary of all the esoteric garbage I’ve produced. Dumbing it all down I’ve written a lot on this blog. I want to dumb it down. Speak in 10th grade English. Below I’m going to talk about what I think the dominant life strategy is, and why. Basically - it’s trying to make as much money as possible, at the intersection of crypto AI and capital markets,…
Maybe the Optimization Bros were a little right afterall. Implementing some changes Failed Health Plans After a stretch of health excellence I made a number of changes that have taken me the wrong direction Feels Bad Man My HRV is off a cliff (89 -> 69). Deep sleep way down (1 hour 30+ -> 45 mins). Lifts and running speed going in the wrong direction (-30% across the board). Screen time way up (45…
channeling momentum, mojo, reading the universal mosaic Below I explore the idea of “the Mo” - or being in tune with the universe, in a useful way that allows you to take larger risks and do better work - but only in short bursts. Famous fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has stated that the most fundamental job of a trader is knowing whether or not he has a “hot hand”. When you have a hot hand,…
What the Optimization Bros Have Wrong and How to Fix It Willpower and Capability Gaps Consider “screen time”. Every Sunday, Apple Users get our screen time report. And every Sunday we say, “You know, next week I’d love for that to be below 1 hour per day.” And - it’s seldom below 1 hour per day. This is one, quantified gap. I am bringing it up because many people are familiar to it and can relate…
a philosophy for simple folk pursuing Faustian bargains with future Intelligence All things are either addictive, or non addictive. All activities either align with your true calling or they do not. Thus - any activity can fit into 4 quadrants Addictive and not aligned with your calling. This is the worst - examples would be injection drugs Addictive and aligned with your calling. An example would…
One man’s screen time is another man’s profit. Mental models and tools of a digital samurai. Screentime Check I’m sure you’ve experienced the same thing I have. Sunday comes around. Apple displays your weekly screen time. And you ask, “Wait, what the f*ck? How did I spend so much time on my iPhone? What was I thinking?” And, you probably know at some level, you weren’t thinking. And…
Escaping the socio-spiritual prison from the starting position of a speculator Sidepots in the Asylum When I started trading, I was in it for money and pride. My father lost a lot of money starting a hedge fund and we lost our house when I was a kid. I got into trading as some kind of redemption arc. My father is a renegade. He viewed markets as a way to escape the simulation.
A hypothetical exploration of the world we are heading towards There have been 3 major technology shifts since 2022. The market has weighted one much higher in terms of valuation - Artificial Intelligence. But a second, more subtle shift was the launch of the MetaQuest Pro and improvement of visual tracking in Virtual Reality. A third, and final tech change is the rise of ZK technology in…
An exploration into accelerationist extremism and its logical conclusions Below I’m going to get into some very pragmatic behavior modifications that could follow logically from accelerationist beliefs. Advances in AI, and biotechnology make it seem likely there will be substantial medical breakthroughs in our lifetime. However - I do not think these breakthroughs - which will include genetic…
the Last Samurai, Darth Vader, the world of entertainment bleeding into the world of things “There are only two industries. This has always been true….There is the industry of things, and the industry of entertainment….After people have the things they need to live, everything else is entertainment. Everything.” ― Neal Stephenson, The Diamond Age: Or, a Young Lady’s Illustrated…
how to use CBT augmented with accelerationist religious fanaticism to improve your work performance Atheism is a Base Case But Its Vibes are Not Immaculate Below I’m going to talk about Stress Zero - an approach I use to actively cut my stress levels to zero on a daily basis. Usually before sleep, or at night time. But sometimes, in the morning. Fundamentally Stress Zero supercharges CBT with…
naming negative nostalgia. exploring clarity in a world with infinite RAM Naming the Culprit A single concept applies to bad investing, bad decision making, and bad feelings. The idea is living in the past. I began exploring this concept by speaking to my friend Kyla about nostalgia, and its role in Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, guys who only eat meat, luddite behavior, and economic…
the subject synthesizes various life experiences, failures and ideas into a singular life philosophy revolving around consciousness Consciousness forms a universal building block of existence. In moments of profound exertion, when I am at my best - I experience this vividly. A “flow state” - a peak experience, is defined by a feeling of ‘the universe flowing through me’. Many people experience…
minimum viable execution marching towards the singularity Minimum Viable Execution Below I want to outline the list of Diet, Exercise, Mental Health and Personal Automation tactics I’m implementing until at least January 5 2024. This post is meant to be an addendum to my previous post “Firing Myself” where I zone in specifically on Personal Automation tactics. That post, in a…
deprecating Alex 1.0, applied accelerationism, ego death with a postgres backend Encountering the Power of AI in Financial Decisions Algorithms from social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram, along with the whole digital marketing industry, work non-stop to hook us on products and services that aren’t good for us. AI differentiates itself from Tech 1.0 by giving users the power of…
a reflection on Nietzsche, Artificial Intelligence, goldfish, and new Gods “God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him. How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers? What was the holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives: who will wipe this blood off us? Is not the greatness of this deed too great for us? Must we…
Ideas expressing weakness in US equities relative to ROW this week Last Week Last week’s performance was +1.25%, unlevered had you traded this blog post on the open Monday and held til Friday Source: Last Week’s Write Up . Full breakdown at a trade level here. Download Big tech and the virus acceleration were separated from the political narrative. I think it is notable that the basket…
extreme FX and interest rate volatility paints a picture of 2 very different worlds. which shall we step into? Let’s start with a question. If Japan has rock bottom risk-free rates, shouldn’t its companies command higher multiples? Shouldn’t Japan be a global hub of innovation - because low rates and structural deflation allow for investment in growth? To the first question -…
Previously I wrote about the evolution of media and how it ends in a poorly defined digital Colosseum. Here I write in detail about how/ why that Colosseum will entail the creation of financial eSports Financial markets are unique from politics, science, or other arenas of the media because they are accompanied by Timeseries. For the most part these timeseries consist of a price which implies a…
one last musing before the descent into the digital colosseum Digital assets and the political media have wrapped around each other, a double helix of increasingly epic proportions. It has not always been like this, but a glimpse of where we are today, before discussing the portal that’s opened behind my casomputer chair that I am about to step through - Central bankers posting their thoughts on…
A 35 point summary of how I define speculation, its 6 core components and thoughts around implementation Investors are not traders. Investors focus on the capital return potential of assets, adjusted for a discount rate. Traders focus on capturing the movement of assets. An investor may trade, to swap into a more appealing capital return or asset. But a trader would rarely invest - as that would…