Bird Flu: The Reluctant Pandemic

A little history

H5N1 avian flu has been around for awhile:

“Influenza A/H5N1 was first detected in 1959 after an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Scotland, which infected two flocks of chickens.^[59][60] The next detection, and the earliest infection of humans by H5N1, was an epizootic (an epidemic in nonhumans) of H5N1 influenza in Hong Kong's poultry population in 1997.” (SOURCE)

How prevalent is it in humans?

Here’s a chart from WHO data back to 2003. A few of my observations:

1. Note the word “Confirmed” human cases and fatality rates. I suspect that we really need to know more about exactly what the definition of “Confirmed” is.

2. Note that it is updated as of 15 February 2025

3. Does this look like a budding pandemic to you?

4. Oh, and the 68 cases and 1 death in the US we jeep hearing about was in the 2024 numbers. 2025, not so much.

(SOURCE)

So, if you’re unlucky enough to catch H5N1 Avian flu, just how deadly is it?

“The majority of people recover from type A or B influenza without serious complications. The elderly, very young children, pregnant women and persons with certain chronic diseases, like asthma and heart or lung disease, are at higher risk for influenza complications.”

“Over 70 percent of all respiratory infections that occur during the “flu season” are not type A or type B influenza because there are many other viruses and bacteria that can cause respiratory “influenza-like illness” (ILI). ILI infection symptoms are similar to influenza symptoms and only lab tests can confirm whether an individual has been infected by influenza or an ILI.” (BOLD TEXT by me) National Vaccine Information Center

Future vaccine market

Well, a lot of people seemed to think we’re going to need a lot more Bird Flu vaccines, both for the poultry themselves, humans, and even cows! Starting in about 2023, for some reason.

Here’s a quick search of Google for “h5n1 bird flu human vaccination market size worldwide”. (SOURCE) If you scroll thru the graphs, it looks like everything is heading up, right?

And, after all, the Biden Administration signed a contract in its final days with Moderna to develop and test vaccines for the five subtypes of influenza including H5N1. (SOURCE )

Then the worm turns.

AI Overview: “In March 2025, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a plan to combat avian flu, but did not mandate chicken and cow vaccines. The plan includes exploring vaccines and therapeutics, but more testing is needed before authorizing their use.” (SOURCE )

And now, from RFK, JR:

"All three of my health agencies—NIH, CDC, and FDA—the acting heads of those agencies—have all recommended against the use of the bird flu vaccine." "You're turning those birds into mutant factories, and that could actually accelerate the jump to human beings." (SOURCE )

Come on USDA and HHS, give a Pandemic a chance, will ya!

How is that increase in vaccine sales going to happen unless we mandate vaccination of chickens and cows, and then humans?

My guess is it won’t.