Statistical and scientific research, consultancy, advocacy
I use Bayes theorem: posterior odds equals prior odds times likelihood ratio. For an introduction, please read this nice blog post https://entropicthoughts.com/bayes-rule-odds-form I use this rule, Bayes rule, repeatedly, each time taking account of another part of the evidence. It is named for Thomas Bayes, a presbyterian minister and mathematician, who was interested in using Continue reading…
A year ago on LinkedIn, I was discussing the possible use of AI in criminal court proceedings with psychometrician Dr. Timo Bechger. LinkedIn uses AI to make suggestions of groups one might like to join. One day, out of the blue, it came up with the suggestion that I join the LinkedIn group called NRA Continue reading "LinkedIn, the story of the AK47"
This LinkedIn conversation started with me asking Dewi Evans to connect to me. I was amazed that he accepted. I guess my request contained a brief message too, but this is not recorded in my LinkedIn account. I suppose Dewi has it in an email sent to him from LinkedIn. It would be nice to Continue reading "My LinkedIn conversation with Dewi Evans"
I just recently became aware of a deep connection between Countess of Chester hospital and radical restructuring of the NHS in the early 90’s, which brought in new layers of bureaucracy and internal competition. Don’t coordinate and distribute. Instead, let hospitals compete, survival of the fittest, dynamic leadership,and innovation! We’ll end up with better health Continue reading "What went…
I would recommend everyone interested in the Lucy Letby case to carefully study the 58 page appeal judgement a board of three judges refused Lucy s application to appeal. It is only 58 pages, it is well written and carefully argued It is just built on heaps of false assumptions. What it says about the Continue reading "Time for a new post on insulin"
I first became interested in the Lucy Letby (LL) case when my wife referred me to a 10 hour podcast entitled: “The Case of LL; The Facts – Crime Scene 2 Court Room”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OA0ukO7D7c. Since, I have searched for further background to this case. Richard Gill’s website raises issues around imbalance between the prosecution and Continue reading "From a correspondent"
The following text is taken from Science on Trial, https://www.scienceontrial.com/, I will later link to the precise location on that website, and find out if the author may be named. After having read through multiple articles detailing the timeline of the circumstances behind of the allegations, I thought I d provide a brief but detailed history Continue reading "The Timeline of the Conspiracy"
Rapid response to: John Launer: Thinking the unthinkable on Lucy Letby BMJ 2023; 382 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.p2197, published 26 September 2023, cite as: BMJ 2023;382:p2197 Dear Editor I am a coauthor of the report of the Royal Statistical Society https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/. It is…
The following text was sent to me by one of my many correspondents, wondering what to do with it, and not daring to publicise his or her ideas. I said that I could post it, so that he or she could remain anonymous. I m not saying that the opinions here are my own opinions. One Continue reading "Conspiracy theory, conspiracy theorists"
Is Lucy’s post-it note a confession? Whether you will see it as a confession or a cry of innocent anguish depends on whether *you* have a heart and a brain. If you read it carefully, you will see that Lucy does not say that she killed those babies. She says that *they said* she killed Continue reading "The post-it note"