Strate𝔾 Update - Week 25 | Q2 | 2026

The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.

• BITCOIN

• ALTCOINS

• STOCKS

• FOREX

• SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)

At 07:00 PM today the Fed will release the Interest Rate Decision, followed by the first the first FOMC press conference of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. His debut as chair is drawing unusual attention because markets are less focused on the rate decision itself and more on how he communicates future policy. A rate pause is to be expected.

Markets remain cautious for now, with many traders expecting the Strait of Hormuz to reopen around Friday. Oil has eased, but investors are waiting for confirmation before fully pricing out geopolitical risk.

The gap printed on the oil chart when the war started is likely to get closed, once the Strait is reopened.

Bitcoin has bounced back to the $66k resistance level formed by the openings and closes on the bi-weekly chart during Feb-Mar this year. There’s no decisive push-through to the upside or to the downside just yet. Clearly some liquidity was grabbed below $60k.

The battle between the 2025 lows and the 2021/2024 highs is far from over. Bitcoin remains caught between these key support and resistance levels, while stronger performance in equities continues to tempt holders to rotate out of crypto. Megaphone patterns are perfect for adding fear, uncertainty, and doubt about whether a bull market is truly over — keeping traders on edge while the trend continues.

For now, this looks like a consolidation phase rather than the start of a broader macro trend shift.

On another hand, despite the recent weakness, long-term holders remain far from capitulation.

The broader risk-on rally remains solid as well. With the Russell2000 back up and above the recent ATH-zone. In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.