What We Should Not Yet Believe About Campaigns
Five claims about how campaigns work, tested against the evidence instead of repeated as fact
George Hornedo's Substack
Former congressional candidate, Obama DOJ alum, and political strategist. Writing about politics, technology, power, and what comes next.
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Latest posts
Why the Distributed Organizing Debate Won't Settle
Three 2020 campaigns bet on it. None of them won. What that does and doesn't prove.
The Compact Room
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The Contingency Table Nobody Publishes
Testing each claim
How Sure Am I?
A Grading System for Every Claim in This Series
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The Full 2020 Field: Structural Data on All Twenty-Seven Campaigns
Appendix to “How Do You Compare a Field of Nearly Thirty Campaigns That Have Little in Common?”
How Do You Compare a Field of Nearly Thirty Campaigns That Have Little in Common?
Part of The Build — Foundations.
What Aircraft Carriers, Fighter Pilots, and Software Teams Know About Campaigns That Political Consultants Don't
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The Build: A Guide to This Series
Foundations, principles, patterns, synthesis, and every 2028 candidate mapped before it starts
The Three Things That Actually Determine Whether a Campaign Works
Money, message, movement, and why none of them work alone.
The New Instruments of Manufactured Momentum
How agenda-driven polling and prediction markets create the appearance of a competitive candidate
The Money Primary Few Are Watching
Cash on Hand, Donor Behavior, and the Structural Race for Resources Before a Single Vote Is Cast