How I wish for a tinfoil hat
One like most have, so to not appear
a belfry bat.
To Linda, Tom, Mary and George
Who if they read them would find my words
just a scourge.
Last night I had food delivered, two submarine sandwiches and an order of fries. Even though I had healthy salmon (just discount the fishy antibiotics and microplastics) and zucchini and onions on hand (cyclosporiasis anyone?), a quick one pan meal, I felt too exhausted to make the effort. These are exhausting times for the collapse aware. The tab with delivery and tip came to $43 and change.
The delivery guy appeared to be about half my age, early 30s and he mentioned how hot it is. Yesterday hit the high 80s which IS hot for Buffalo, NY, but nothing like the killer heat in the western and southern states or the heat dome in Europe setting Spain, Portugal, Greece and France on fire and killing at least 10,000 so far. Me being me, I took the opportunity to test his knowledge. I enjoy gauging ignorance.
“Yeah, it’s hot, but look at what’s happening in Europe,” I replied.
Blank expression. “What’s happening in Europe?”
“There having record temperatures well over 100°. In Germany, 5,000 people have died so far.”
“My mom went to France. They didn’t even have air conditioning.”
“They didn’t need air conditioning until climate change you little twerp.”
Okay, I didn’t say that last part. And I actually don’t want to be condescending or disrespectful. This young guy is working in an economy that requires two or more jobs to stay alive. Whatever time he has for news is what our long marginal MSM dishes, getting worse by the minute as Trump makes reporting the truth potentially criminal and attempts to double down on billionaire media control. Trump’s NSMP-7 makes anti-capitalist, anti-Christian, anti-American, anti-establishment, pro-trans views subject to prosecution as DOMESTIC TERRORISM while ICE roams the streets, licensed to kill. This was formerly known as free speech. The “Prairieview Nine” protesting ICE made some tactical errors in my view adding vulnerability to their prosecution. However, labeling them “Antifa” which is not an organization, just shorthand for antifascist, and handing out sentences up to 100 years disturbingly demonstrates where our country is now.
The odds are my delivery guy was a liberal Democrat, that’s the majority of the blue collar, working-class city of Buffalo and its suburbs. Problem? The Democratic Party have been selling us down the river ever since the Clinton years, breeding conditions for MAGA to rise. Meanwhile, no serious discussion let alone vision or coordinated action on climate change has ever taken place, a far more existential threat than even the considerable terror of fascism.
In 2015, CO2 emissions stood at 402 ppm. Today, they stand at 431 ppm.
The 195 country voluntary participation 2015 Paris Accord seeking to limit warming to 1.5°C is dead, bank on it, buy air conditioning stocks says Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, and the U.S. — the second-largest polluter after China — has withdrawn from the agreement for a second time. Psychopath and Chief Trump withdrew in his first term, Biden rejoined, then Trump withdrew again.
Climate scientist James Hansen who warned our erudite congress of climate change in 1988 for bleeps sake is predicting 1.7°C of industrial-driven temperature rise in 2027. It appears he will easily be correct with an El Niño on the way increasingly looking to be a monster record setter since such records were kept. The oceans have absorbed 90 percent of our excess heat, time for a record burp.
It’s all worth it though, bought me a USB Pet Rock.
According to this article from Earth.org, already pushing two years old, emission cuts of 42 percent by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 are necessary to get back to the 1.5°C suggested in Paris. Yeah, right. That’s gonna happen. The article also suggests 3.1°C of temperature rise by 2100.
That opinion is in line with the vast majority of climate scientists who predict a temperature rise of at least 2.5°C by end of century with almost half predicting 3.0°C. This could be optimistic, though. A study from ScienceDirect suggests 3.0°C could be breached BY 2050.
From the article (my bold):
Nevertheless, all these long-term energy and emission savings across world regions have been ultimately insufficient to counter the climate footprint of ever-richer and ever-larger populations. The ‘rebound effect’ seems to have prevailed everywhere over the last two centuries: efficiency gains have been absorbed and outpaced by the growing scale of the economy. If the best performances from the past were replicated in terms of reducing carbon intensity, we would only maintain current emission levels, and thus temperatures would exceed the 3° threshold by 2050. Even if future efficiency gains manage to outshine all historical precedent, further ‘rebound effects’ will remain a risk and require novel agreements and policies (Grubler et al., 2018b).
Fortunately, that record El Niño is arriving as I write. This will help cast all doubt aside about where we’re heading and row our boats over rising oceans in the same direction, right? I feel a giant leap of human wisdom coming on. Or maybe one of my subs is coming back on me.
On our burgeoning El Niño from Zeke Hausfather and The Climate Brink:
With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.
My bolds again.
Zeke is usually conservative in his assessments. I’m more of a James Hansen guy, with his more urgent views (Hansen’s assessment is here) so Zeke’s words speak loudly to my old ringing ears.
With wildfires raging in U.S. Western states and Europe, and drought devastating agriculture worldwide, it’s not irony that as I wind this article down the skies are hazy with Canadian wildfire smoke again — in fact it’s at street level here, hazing the view of my neighbor’s house across the street and filling my nose. It’s just as it was three years ago when I wrote There’s Something in the Air, but crazier for the time lost.
There’s Something in the Air
·
June 11, 2023
A few days ago, I took a three-mile walk with a good friend in Delaware Park, Buffalo, NY. Shortly after a week of record heat not seen here even in late summer, the weather had cooled to normal, …
We’ve made progress since then. All in the wrong direction, and the clock is running out. I’ve got tinfoil though, gonna make me a hat.
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