A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
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What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30?
This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we think.
KILL THE VAMPIRES
A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates
Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving defection from "establishment" picks
Can we trust the polls in 2026?
Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
I reanalyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.
What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
Why polling primary elections is so hard
Senate and governor primary election polls are off by 13 points on average, and 20+ points about 10% of the time
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026
Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
Deep Dive episode: What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think?
Watch now (59 mins) | I sit down with Peter Enns, a political scientist at Cornell University, whose new research offers an optimistic view of democracy and representation
Trump is “Teflon Don” no more
Plus, price anxiety and anti-incumbent bias are worse than in 2024. Your weekly political data roundup for August 9, 2026.