Global Land Diplomacy Briefing, May 2026

Please tell me if the depressing to hopeful balance is off in these… and send it to your friends so they can subscribe here.

If you thought the food impacts of the Iran war were already bad, wait for the “coming global food crisis” reports the FT. For commodities highly susceptible to fertiliser cost shocks, like rice, the coming El Niño could further compound the issue as growing conditions worsen with erratic weather, says think tank IFPRI. While farmers and consumers grapple with costs that we’ll only see the full extent of later in the year, fertiliser bosses rake in $66mn as share prices spike.

*45%: increase in fertiliser prices
*45mn: amount of people expected to experience acute hunger
*9%: expected food price rise in the UK
*4.2%: expected global rise in grain prices
*$50mn: shares sold by CF Industries since the war began
*£1.8mn: March profits in fertiliser boss’s pocket from company Nutrien
*$8.5mn: banked by 3 VPs at fertiliser company Archer Daniels Midland

A new report, ‘Tipping into the Wild Unknown’ landed this week. Actuaries are not a profession known for being dramatic, so their conclusions should hit the finance industry hard. We are vastly underpricing nature risk and heading towards economic collapse - with food security, one of the greatest risks. This is no longer an environmental issue, it’s an economic risk. In short, we are running a global system on natural assets we are destroying and the bill is starting to come through.

Buckle up for a stat based rollercoaster, which highlights why countries agreeing to coordinate on a fossil fuel roadmap in Santa Marta last week is a win for forests too: new data shows deforestation dropped 35% in 2025 (yey), but rates are still 46% higher than a decade ago (oh). With forest fires now one of the biggest reasons for forest loss (oh no), and El Niño on the horizon (come on), the picture could be bleak this year. According to scientists, the Amazon can regrow even when relentlessly pounded for decades by fires, winds and drought (excellent), but a level of biodiversity will be lost (oh). For that to happen though, the fires need to stop (great).

I asked AI for a joke about the UK holding out on investing in Brazil’s Tropical Forest Fund (TFFF) despite its own report finding forests are critical for national security. It said, ‘they paid for fighter jets to deal with the consequences instead.’ Hard to know if that’s funny or true at this point. Research org AFII argues that an investment in the TFFF should be seen as a ‘catalytic investment in the country’s future defence’. We’re still waiting…

Sad stat: 28,000 premature deaths a year are caused by deforestation linked to heat stress.

32 US Congress men and women wrote to the EU Commission urging to “hold the line” on the long debated EU deforestation regulation. Days later, the lines became somewhat wobbly. Global companies like Ferraro have backed the law as is, but contention remains around a “no risk” category, where certain commodities can receive exemptions. Leather is the latest to be let off the hook - a win for deforesting industrial agriculture. Europe imports 40% of its raw hides from places like the US and Brazil. Trump’s administration is pushing due to timber, with $7.8bn a year of exports likely to be impacted. But exempting trees from a tree law would be an interesting move.

As deforestation regulations wobble, investment in the TFFF takes time, and the deforestation roadmap stays in the background, scientists highlight the impacts: across Africa, forests are starting to work against us, not with us. But it’s not a lost cause. Academics state that investment, reforestation and strong governance to tackle drivers of deforestation can get our sinks back on track. Cue strong, actions oriented deforestation roadmap…

It’s feeling like a ‘flyover’ COP for forests, but food security is rumoured to be one of the priorities this year in Türkiye - albeit there are 9 of them, which feels like being one of 9 bridesmaids at your friends wedding and still trying to feel special. The reality of what it means is still a mystery, but Bonn in June could give some clarity.

France’s Minister for Ecological Transition announced in the run up to G7 that she intends to get $800mn together to fund 20 African countries’ national parks and biodiversity. Who else is chipping in and for which African countries is still unclear.

Amidst rising food prices thanks to skyrocketing fertiliser costs, the EU will release its fertiliser plan this month. A High Level Dialogue dominated by industry and lacking impacted farmers left a poor taste in the mouths of some, as industry tried to water down the problem and paper over the fact nature friendly farmers were coming out of the crisis a lot better than those dependent on fertilisers.

The iconic Echaurren Glacier that supplies water to Chile has lost nearly 65% of surface area, according to scientists. It’s being deemed an early indicator of what could happen to other freshwater reservoirs as temps continue to break records.

Criminal networks linked to illegal mining and drug trafficking now have a presence in 67% of Amazonian municipalities, affecting 32% of indigenous territories directly. Deforestation, violence against women and forced recruitment are amongst the issues arising from the poor governance allowing criminals to expand.

Unredacted cabinet papers reveal that the NZ government was not being entirely truthful when it claimed watering down agriculture methane targets did not mean bigger cuts for other sectors. Higher carbon prices will be needed across the board to make up the gap, which could add $270 a year to the average NZ household.

A coalition of MPs are pushing for deforestation regulations to the EUs.

*11-15: UN Forum on Forests, New York
*11-16: Nature Tech Week, UK
*17: Endangered Species Day
*18-23: World Health Assembly
*19-21: European Feed Manufacturers conference
*20-21: Wageningen Food and Ag Summit
*22: International Day of Biological Diversity
*31: Colombian Presidential election

Any tips, thoughts, comments - drop me a Whatsapp (+447923098591) or an email (Lindsay.smith@gsccnetwork.org)