Front Running: PM Parlays Are Going Stratospheric

Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: PM PARLAYS ARE EXPLODING

• The chart above, taken from our latest Prediction Markets Monitor, shows Execution Volume (EV) for sports combos across all PM operators.

• Combos have exploded in recent months, particularly with the advent of the World Cup.

• Combo execution volume on Kalshi in June is 12.4% of sports EV, roughly double that in March.

• EV is a better reflection of OSB-style handle as it reflects the value transacted at the time of trade and is measured on a one-sided basis.

• The evidence increasingly suggests that maximizing the sports PM opportunity will depend less on adding new sports and more on continuing to evolve combo products toward greater depth, flexibility, and engagement.

• Toward that end, Polymarket International introduced user-generated combo products in Jun-26 (only modest daily average EV thus far, per our tracking)—and we expect Polymarket U.S. to follow suit imminently.

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: META EYING PM APP?

• Meta is working on a predictions market app, per a new report from The New York Times.

• The app would be initially be play money, though the company has not ruled out a real-money version, the NYT said.

• The app is provisionally called Arena and would be a standalone product.

3. PODAST: THE TAX MAN IS COMING FOR PREDICTION MARKETS

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG policy director Becca Giden to discuss:

• Why states could have success in taxing prediction markets

• The new CFTC rules on prediction markets

• Whether sportsbooks will continue to avoid tax increases

Listen here.

4. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: FANDUEL SEEING MINIMAL PM IMPACT ON OSB

• FanDuel is not seeing any real impact on its sportsbook activity from prediction markets, exec Jon Sadow told EKG’s Zero Latency podcast last week.

• The comments are somewhat at odds with DraftKings’ CEOJason Robins, who has previously said sharp bettors are shifting to DK Predicts, meaning lower handle but higher hold on the sportsbook.

• Our own research continues to suggest a small impact on OSB activity, with PM activity focused in populous, non-OSB states like TX and CA.