VUCA

The military developed a term to summarize what happens during war, VUCA.
This stands for:

• Volatile

• Uncertain

• Complex

• Ambiguous

They then developed tools to help their soldiers and sailors be able to deal with the “fog” of war. The old style of leadership was to give orders and expect them to be carried out no matter what. That style led to massacres. The new one pushes down decision making to a lower level, trusting well trained people to make good decisions.

I see the similarities between war and what is happening now in our lives. The world has become more volatile and uncertain. This affects everyone, so it leads to conflict as we figure out how to interpret what is going on.

I once heard someone describe life as a “chaos lottery”. That’s a great phrase to capture some of this uncertainty.

Accepting that life is fundamentally uncertain is tough. We seem to be hardwired to want certainty, to know what the future will bring. Some of us more than others. But there are no guarantees. We extrapolate from the present. Our arguments in our relationships are based on how we interpret the present and the potential future.

Certainty in an ambiguous, complex world is impossible. Again and again, we fall for people who seem to know what the future holds. We use their presentation skills (or their charisma) as a marker of how well they know what they are talking about. But over and over again, they are proved wrong.

One approach: Stay rooted in the present and pay attention. Pay attention to the cues you get from what is going on around you so you will be able to respond more quickly when things do change. Be where your feet are. And don’t believe those who say they know what is going on, learn to trust the people who aren’t certain but have good ideas.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t plan for the future, you should. But also stay present to the now.

That way, you don’t have to argue about the future.

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