Dear readers,
In the 1975 “Hedgehog in the Fog,” a Soviet animation by Yuri Norstein, a small hedgehog on its way to visit its friend, the bear cub, for their evening tea and stargazing, is followed by a minacious owl, distracted from its path by an ethereal white horse, and lost in a mysterious fog. He finds his way back to his friend with the help of other characters, but remains changed by his journey through the unknown.
The short film is so iconic in popular culture that it has lent its name to more than a dozen cafes found in almost every corner of Riga, a signature dessert in Vilnius, and its own statue in Kyiv. Despite its Soviet patrimony, it is symbolic to nations previously under Soviet rule, even going so far as to become a hero of the Maidan. The characters have myriad interpretations, but the little hedgehog is often emblematic of finding the right path through the fog.
Though almost certainly stretching the bounds of the cartoon’s symbolism (or perhaps just articulating a springtime longing to sit on a cafe terrace in Riga), the month’s events brought the classic film to mind as the Baltic countries navigate increasingly hazy geopolitical realities.
The most literal parallel comes from Lithuania’s parliamentary opposition, which, critiquing the country’s current defense plan as overly bureaucratic, presented an alternative centered on society-wide total defense. “Lithuania’s defence capabilities must make it a prickly hedgehog, too uncomfortable and difficult for even a much stronger Russian bear to overcome,” said former defense minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas (Homeland Union).
The whole-of-society approach, which integrates civil, military, and private-sector efforts, has taken hold across the Baltic countries, particularly following Russia’s incursions into Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. Efforts have included renewed conscription mandates and new pan-Baltic fortification, strengthening national alert systems and cybersecurity protections, staging national crisis drills, and ensuring emergency stockpiles. This month, despite protests, Lithuania’s parliament approved construction of the Kapčiamiestis military training ground in the Lazdijai district, along the Suwalki Gap.
Becoming “hedgehogs” in their own right is increasingly important as the US under President Donald Trump continues to muddle the credibility of NATO deterrence and undermine allied capabilities more directly as the war in Iran depletes resources.
Becoming “hedgehogs” in their own right is increasingly important as the US under President Donald Trump continues to muddle the credibility of NATO deterrence and undermine allied capabilities more directly as the war in Iran depletes resources. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth informed his counterpart in Estonia, Hanno Pevkur, that the US will pause arms deliveries to Estonia, particularly impacting HIMARS ammunition and Javelin anti-tank systems. Lithuania was also notified of changes to supply schedules, and Latvia is following the situation, though it has not yet received official word of planned delays. Overcoming this past pattern of now unreliable reliance on the US is an opportunity to kickstart Europe’s defense industry and prioritize European acquisitions, argues Vootele Päi, Head of Defence and Dual-Use at Estonia’s Tehnopol.
Along with setbacks in the acquisition of US munitions comes a murkier understanding of American soft power in Central and Eastern Europe in the wake of Hungary’s elections. The Trump administration overtly threw its support behind strongman Viktor Orbán, going so far as to send Vice President JD Vance to campaign on his behalf. Former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis argues this move effectively undermined America’s influence in hearts and minds: blatantly shifting “the paradigm of transatlantic relations from shared values to the defense of national interests.”
Vance’s efforts were to no avail, as a decisive outcome ensured Orbán’s fall after 16 years in office. It came with a near-immediate win for Ukraine backers in Europe. With Orbán ousted, the European Union was able to pass a $106 billion loan package for Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia. The foreign council felt “more hopeful” without the specter of Hungary’s veto, said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, though other opponents of aid to Ukraine may remain irritants.
There were successes for the Baltic and Ukrainian causes on this side of the Atlantic as well. After mounting pressure from Republicans and Democrats alike, the Pentagon finally released a $400 million aid package for Ukraine that had been stalled for months. With significant lobbying from the Joint Baltic American National Committee and the Baltic American Freedom League, the bipartisan Baltic Security Assessment Act is making its way through Congress to require greater coordination between the legislative and executive branches on threats to the Baltic countries. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee also considered Russia’s sabotage in the Baltic Sea in a hearing at the end of the month, with witnesses noting lessons for the Indo-Pacific, and underscoring that there can never be a return to “business as usual” with Russia under Putin.
Still, there is no doubt that the Baltic states must continue to build their self-reliance. Like the hedgehog, they are not without help or hope from others, even within the fog. But having been untethered from the security of routine and having gone through the fearful unknown, the hedgehog is no longer complacent to the easy patterns of the past, and is wiser for it.
Thank you for indulging the metaphor — now onto more headlines from April.
Estonia’s Internal Security Service, or KAPO, released its annual review, naming Russia as its “principal adversary” and influence operations as a primary battlefield. Latvia’s security service published a list of Russian and Belarusian spies, and last year, Estonia caught a record number of Russian collaborators. And the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga released its quarterly Security Barometer.
Baltic officials pushed back on Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky’s warning that the Baltics could be “next,” saying it echoes the Kremlin line. And, Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center games out how a Putin assault on NATO could look in the Baltics.
Latvia’s parliament extends the Middle East peacekeeping mission for armed forces.
Security tech start-ups, including in Estonia, are playing an increasingly significant role in the war in Ukraine, and Russia is threatening Ukrainian drone manufacturers in Europe.
The Lithuanian parliament stripped immunity from former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis as prosecutors look into a corruption case linked to the State Plant Service. Influential conservative politician Kazys Starkevičius admitted accepting a bribe linked to the scandal.
After terminating a contract with election platform developer RIX Technologies, the government announced that Latvia’s election system will be run by LMT, Tet, and Latvian State Forests.
Re:Baltica investigates who is stoking public fear of immigration in Latvian politics.
Lithuania halved train fares for two months amid fuel price surge. Latvia’s parliament passed an emergency bridge loan to airBaltic as fuel costs surge, while in Estonia, politicians withheld support for taking a stake in the regional aircarrier.
Riga residents overpaid for heating by some 8 million euros in 2024-2025, said auditors, who identified mechanisms for lowering heat energy prices through eliminating market and regulatory gaps.
The Latvian government gave a green light to two wind park projects, but these have faced pushback from local residents. Some of the disruption may be orchestrated by Russia, which is recruiting agitators against clean energy in Europe. And, strong winds felled a defunct wind turbine in western Latvia, which was then looted.
A Lithuanian company sells its first domestic supercar, and the Latvian Post will expand its service network into Lithuania and Estonia.
An investigation from LRT looks at a Lithuanian firm linked to Lukashenko’s duty-free trade.
Fitch Ratings upgraded Lithuania’s credit rating from A to A+.
Estonia is seeking to delay the EU’s pay transparency directive, citing administrative burdens. Some find the resistance “shameful.”
A 17-year-old was detained after stabbings at a school in Marijampolė, Lithuania.
Over 10,000 protested in Vilnius against the politicization of Lithuania’s public broadcaster. And, a study finds that Lithuanians’ civic participation doubled in 2025.
Statistics Estonia reported a decline in Estonia’s population for the second year in a row. And Eurostat predicts that Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland will experience the sharpest population declines by 2100.
Aitäh, paldies and ačiū,
Indra Ekmanis
Baltic Bulletin Editor
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