A blog about AI, economic growth, decadence, and the long-run future.
Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendiness in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project.
My 4.5 hour conversation with Dwarkesh. I had a blast!
A new research direction for superalignment: can we leverage the generalization properties of deep learning to control strong models with weak supervisors?
We’re launching $10M in grants to support technical research towards the alignment and safety of superhuman AI systems, including weak-to-strong generalization, interpretability, scalable oversight, and more.
AGI will effectively be the most powerful weapon man has ever created. Neither “lockdown forever” nor “let ‘er rip” is a productive response; we can chart a smarter path.
Society really cares about safety. Practically speaking, the binding constraint on deploying your AGI could well be your ability to align your AGI. Solving (scalable) alignment might be worth lots of $$$ and key to beating China.
Far fewer people are working on it than you might think, and even the alignment research that is happening is very much not on track. (But it’s a solvable problem, if we get our act together.)
People will not look forward to posterity, who never look backward to their ancestors.
Some of the very best, and most beautiful, economic theory on long-run growth.
Religion, faith and the future, level vs. growth effects, the Cuban Missile Crisis, science fiction, and more.
Covering what Tyler gets wrong about existential risk, economic growth, declining fertility rates, Germany's "tall poppy syndrome," and more.
America’s economic dependence on China creates a security vulnerability. But tariffs are royally ineffective at mitigating this vulnerability. I consider the underlying informational problem.
Too many great minds waste away their time watching Netflix. Worse, we have made that culturally acceptable. For a TV-temperance movement.
On the European obsession with America, the dearth of the political on the Continent, and the downsides of homogeneity.
Human activity and new technologies can be dangerous, threatening the very survival of humanity. Does that mean economic growth is inherently risky?
