
Speculative Supply Chains and the Madness of Crowds
How Rational Incentives Aggregate into Irrational Outcomes
This newsletter provides commentary on current financial events by explaining them in the context of financial history. The newsletter draws from the book "Investing in U.S. Financial History," which arrives in bookstores in February 27 2024.
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How Rational Incentives Aggregate into Irrational Outcomes

The Present is no Exception Nor Will the Future Likely Be

Why Conventional Models That Guide Policy and Capital Allocation Fail When Outcomes Matter Most

Two Decades of Excess Capital Are Trapped at the Exits

How liquidity engineering, performance dynamics, and competitive diseconomies of scale create severe run risk

The Speculative Supply Chain is Operating at Full Capacity

Ignoring History Raised the Odds of a Great Inflation-Like Event

One-Day Gains are Fueling Dangerous Speculation in Secondaries

The Nation’s Survival Depends on It

Institutional Investors Draw Retail Investors in so They Can Get Out