Follow up on Treasury buybacks
More significant than I thought
Fidenza Macro
Global macro views from a trader with over two decades of institutional trading experience. Multiplied initial capital by 1000x with 100% skin in the game. Readers include hedge funds, banks, independent traders, and sovereign wealth managers.
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The Treasury buyback announcement is a nothing burger
The US Treasury surprised the market yesterday by announcing that they will increase buybacks of 20 to 30 year Treasury bonds from $2b to at least $4b.
Markets In Limbo
Quiet periods like this don’t last long. I see three themes to keep an eye on and to position for over the next several months.
Still cautious
Outlining two scenarios on how this current rebound will play out
July 2026 - A turning point in the AI supercycle
March 2000. March 2008. January 2020. December 2022. Certain months stand out in my memory as turning points that preceded violent upheavals in markets. I believe we will look back on this past month in the same way.
AI vibe shift, broad market views
Breaking down the AI vibe shift, and how I'm trading stagflation fears.
Turning neutral on AI semis and infrastructure
I had a vivid dream last night in which I unwound my entire AI portfolio.
Thoughts on Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting
Warsh’s first meeting delivered a clear change in tone and also marked the start of a broader regime change within the Fed that will shape how it operates and makes decisions for years.
Global macro is getting interesting again
The US and Iran are set to sign a 14 point memorandum of understanding that will restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels.
Anthropic drama and a rare trading signal in precious metals
The White House unexpectedly banned Anthropic’s Fable on Friday using its export controls.
Claude Fable is released
Today’s big news is that Claude Fable - a Mythos-class model - has been released.
What could possibly go wrong with the AI boom?
I outline five ways the cycle could stall or reverse, whether due to forces inside the AI ecosystem or shocks from the broader macro and political environment.