Over six seasons in the NFL, Burrow has beaten his early future prop line three times (4,611, 4,475, and 4,918) while missing two games in those years. Cincinnati finished second in passing attempts last year (640), leading to 4,244 passing yards with trheir start quarterback on the field for only eight games. In 2023, with Burrow out for another seven matchups, the Bengals passed for 4,011 yards. With 16 starts, he should easily beat his Underdog future line.
What did J.J. McCarthy do last year to warrant the Vikings’ starting job last year? Why would Minnesota bring in a veteran quarterback to compete for the starting job? How unhappy would Justin Jefferson be if McCarthy won the starting quarterback job?
Murray averaged 219 passing yards across his past 48 starts, which would require him to be behind center for 14 games to pass for over 3,000 yards with repeated results. He has a stud WR1 (Justin Jefferson), with three other viable receiving options at wideout and tight end. The Vikings have a history of wanting to attack via the pass under Kevin O’Connell as their head coach.
2024 - Minnesota (Sam Darnold) passed for 4,379 yards on 548 pass attempts.
2023 - Vikings (Kirk Cousins) finished fourth in pass attempts (614), leading to 4,700 passing yards.
2022 - They ranked third in pass attempts (672), with 4,818 passing yards.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison drove the offensive bus in 2023 and 2024, and the Vikings featured T.J. Hockenson when healthy. By splashing in Jauan Jennings, Minnesota should pass the ball much better this year. So the decision falls more on Murray keeping the starting job and staying healthy. I like his chances for success this year.
I find it strange that Underdog offers this prop line, and it reminds me of when Vinnie Pasquantino has over/under of 0.5 steals last year at FanDuel. The over was the play, and his prop would have been live for 162 games. He stole his only base on June 15th (four steals this year).
Over his first 104 games with the Ravens, Andrews had nine carries for 13 yards with no rushing scores. Baltimore used him as a tush push player on short yardage sitution last year (10/48/1). He gained 35 yards and scored on one fluke play in Week 11 on a direct snap up the middle. The odds are in favor of him not scoring on the ground again unless he catches a ball in the flat and reaches the end zone, and it is deemed a lateral (deeming it a rushing score).
In the last update of my projections, I have Downs projected to gain 907 receiving yards. On Monday, Keenan Allen signed with the Colts. His veteran experience should fill the void left by Michael Pittman in Indy’s offense. At the same time, if he only catches 50 balls (81 last year), Downs should lose at a minimum of 15% of his receiving opportunity. He could regain some targets if Alec Pierce has any other setback with his ankle injury. I expect Downs’ receiving prop to be lowered over the next couple of days.
A couple of others that look favorable:
Jeremiah Love Over 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Brian Thomas Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.