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Excess Returns

We take complex investing topics and make them understandable for everyday investors. Subscribe to get new interviews every week with great investors and deep dives into topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more.

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We Asked a Value Legend Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers

Watch now | Bob Robotti on why AI’s biggest opportunities may be hiding in the physical economy, how passive investing creates openings for stock pickers, and why patient capital still matters.

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Full Transcript: Bob Robotti on Misunderstood Fundamentals and Grassroots Macro

Capital Cycles, Reindustrialization, and Why the Long Wait Makes the Payoff Bigger

The Midwit Graph: Five Lessons from Dom Rizzo

The T. Rowe Price global technology PM on the dangers of overthinking, navigating bubbles instead of missing them, and the market daring you to choose.

Falling Rates. Rising Productivity. Are You Rooting for the Wrong Things?

Watch now | Why falling rates can become bad news for stocks, why productivity can rise when growth weakens, and what that means for the AI boom.

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Full Transcript: Weekly Wrap on AI Productivity and Falling Rates

Why Rates Might Fall for the Wrong Reason and Whether the Boom Is Real

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Shift | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Watch now | Why the semi selloff may have been more about leverage than fundamentals — and why rates, correlation and options positioning now matter more.

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Full Transcript: The OPEX Effect on Rate Maxing and the Dispersion Unwind

Why the Market Shifted from Tokens to Rates Ahead of Nvidia and Jackson Hole

Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

Watch now | Jim Paulsen on why the market may be shifting from inflation fear to growth fear and why falling yields could become bad news for stocks

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Full Transcript: Jim Paulsen on the Coming Shift from Inflation Fear to Growth Fear

Weak Jobs, Policy Lags, False Productivity Signals, and New Era vs. Old Era

We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

Watch now | Dom Rizzo on why today looks like 1998, why AI spending may accelerate from here, and why traditional software could be on the wrong side of the next phase of the AI boom.

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