Copper is a very unique metal, with many roles and many identities. It is used heavily in manufacturing, residential and commercial real estate, transportation, and technology for all manner of pipes, fittings, electrical connections. For this foundational demand it is most commonly referred to as a “base metal” or “industrial metal.” However, due to copper’s crucial role in electricity transmission – through all facets of modern life, from real estate, to infrastructure, and from power substations to the energy grid, it has also been referred to for years as an “energy metal.”
Copper was officially included in the final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, published on November 6, 2025 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); along with 59 other minerals that are essential for the U.S. economy and national security. This elevated status of copper as a “critical mineral,” which has kept the price of copper elevated ever since then, continuing to reach new all-time highs throughout 2026.
In this article we’ll review some of the technical and fundamental reasons that copper pricing has held up so strong, even in the face of so much uncertainty regarding both the macroeconomic outlook and a challenging geopolitical backdrop that roiled most of the metals complex in the Spring and Summer.
So, let’s get into it…
Copper futures wrapped up July by putting in an all-time high monthly close at $6.5075. That is another longer-term bullish technical signal, in a continuing string of strong technical data points. All new all-time highs are significant; but especially on the longer-duration charts.
The copper chart has been up and to the right for the last couple years, remaining in a bullish posture, and is still far above the 50-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA); {currently down at $4.8068}.
Copper is starting to get a bit stretched to the upside from a longer-term technical perspective, but that is precisely how bull markets often act.
As a cautionary note: If we see a broad market equities selloff, a pullback in the relentless AI datacenter buildout initiatives, or news that breaks regarding the Trump administration placing those much anticipated tariffs on copper; then it’s price has more room to drop than many other metals.
Copper futures closed last week at another new all-time high weekly close at $6.6065, after having made new ATH weekly closes the 2 prior weeks as well. All new all-time highs are significant.
Copper futures are still well above the 50-week EMA, {currently down at $5.8196}
Over the course of 2026, where many other metals have suffered harsh pullbacks for the last handful of months, copper really stands head and shoulders above the rest of the pack; having kept such a strong technical posture and series of higher highs.
The question now is whether the red metal can continue blasting higher and break the $7 barrier, or whether it is at risk for a potential bigger fall than other metals.
Copper is often overlooked by commodities investors, because it does not get the exciting headlines that gold, silver, and precious metals equities receive due to financial chaos, or from the supply shock narratives that rare earths receive due to Chinese export quotas, or that the oil sector receives due to geopolitics and supply chain bottlenecks.
Despite the good doctor dancing like nobody’s watching the last couple years, many generalist investors, leaders of industry, and government policy makers are going to increasingly need to sit up and pay attention moving forward.
The world’s largest base metals mining company, BHP Group Limited (NYSE: BHP), released a seminal industry report back in September 2024 titled, “BHP Insights: How Copper Will Shape Our Future,”
Their release served as a wakeup call to the world about the trends they see both in growing demand and the limited ability for any meaningful supply response to emerge from the mining industry unless prices go substantially higher.
A few notable passages from this masterclass on copper from the research team behind BHP actually tie in perfectly with the focus of this missive:
“Copper has shaped human history and civilization for millennia. In the 20th century, the story of copper was inextricably linked to the rise of electricity demand. As we harnessed electrical power, copper became an indispensable material, crucial to our energy systems and modern technology. Through the 21st century, we expect copper to remain an essential building block to modern life as the world seeks to improve living standards for billions of people, transitions towards a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy, and further digitalizes its industries and societies.”
“Total global copper demand has grown at a 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 75 years—but this growth rate has been slowing. It was only 1.9% over the 15 years to 2021. Looking to 2035, however, we expect this growth rate to jump back to 2.6% annually. We believe this reversal will come from a combination of three key themes: ‘Traditional’ economic growth, and the newer themes of the ‘Energy Transition’ and ‘Digital’ (primarily data centres).”
“We expect global electricity consumption for data centers to rise from around 2% of global demand today, to 9% by 2050, with copper demand in data centers increasing six-fold by 2050.”
It’s not just demand from data centers that is piling onto the demand growth side of the equation; it is also the growth of the global fleet of electric cars, electric buses, e-bikes, and the buildout of charging stations.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) projects “a 177% increase in copper demand from the EV and battery sector by 2030, reaching 2.5 million tonnes annually,” even though some automakers are reducing the amount of copper in some components.
According to Wood Mackenzie, global copper demand is set to surge 24% by 2035, rising by 8.2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) to 42.7 Mtpa. Growth will be driven by traditional economic development and electrification in developed and emerging nations, alongside new structural demand from increased defense spending, connecting renewable power and new power plants to the grid, and AI data centers push towards digitalization.
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘High-wire act Is soaring copper demand an obstacle to future growth?’ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/soaring-copper-demand-an-obstacle-to-future-growth/
One could spend endless days of their life looking into the deluge of research on the demand side of the equation, and all the different projections out into the future, but the truth is nobody knows the future or the specifics. We won’t know until we get there…. What we do know is that there is a great deal of copper demand building for years out into the future, and that is a mega-trend we can capitalize on as investors.
It should become increasingly clear, as we dig down into the supply constraints of the red metal projecting many years out into the future, that copper could very well become the new “red gold” for our energy transition future. There is a generational opportunity for resource investors that can position into the companies that will provide that limited supply of new copper into a market that is starved for more of it.
Nomi Prins – Prinsights – August 12, 2026
“Governments are moving to ringfence copper inside their borders, just as the market tips into its deepest deficit in more than 20 years.”
“Copper just hit a new record high, fast approaching our 2026 forecast of $7 per pound. The COMEX copper futures contract closed last night at around $6.66 a pound, while copper in London held near $14,100 a tonne.”
“This supply shortage is structural, driven by a combination of declining ore grades and limited mine output. Copper is a necessary metal for utility power grids, electric vehicles, data centers and modern weapons. That’s why the U.S. and other governments are increasingly placing it on their critical or strategic minerals lists – making it a national security imperative.”
“And there’s no substitute for copper at scale.”
“That’s why the latest financial forecasts also matter. You see, Morgan Stanley projected that refined copper should run a 600,000 tonne deficit in 2026, the widest gap in more than twenty years.”
“Countries engaged in key components of the copper supply chain are increasingly trying to maintain their grip over it.”
“Below, we detail the key ways the world’s major players are locking up their part of the copper supply chain.”
Bloomberg News | July 28, 2026
Under previous administrations, Codelco was consistently too optimistic on its production targets, with project setbacks eroding performance, Fontaine said in an interview with Radio Infinita.
“For seven years, Codelco hasn’t met its projections — and this year is no exception,” he said Tuesday. “It will be a difficult year for production.”
There is “no possibility” of reaching a previous target of 1.7 million tons within four or five years, he said, adding that management is now focused instead on presenting a more realistic assessment of the business. In March, Codelco delivered a 2026 production guidance range of 1.331 million to 1.357 million tons.
Bloomberg News | July 31, 2026
“Chile registered its weakest second quarter of copper production in data going back to 2007, underscoring the challenge facing the world’s biggest supplier as aging mines struggle to lift output despite billions of dollars of investment.”
“Production fell 7.7% from the same quarter last year to 1.27 million metric tons, despite a recovery in June, according to calculations based on monthly data published Friday by the statistics bureau. It’s the lowest for an April-June period going back 19 years.”
May 26, 2026 – Crux Investor - Ryan Charles
Multi-Year Mine Disruptions Tighten Global Copper Supply
“Copper supply disruptions are extending over multiple years rather than quarters, tightening global copper balances and pushing smelter treatment and refining charges toward zero or negative levels. Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia delayed its return to full production from 2027 to 2028 after the September 2025 mudslide, while CNBC reported in March 2026 that the company cut 2026 production guidance by 35%. Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is still recovering from 2025 flooding and also faces sulfuric acid shortages, with J.P. Morgan Global Research estimating the DRC imports about 80% of its sulfur supply through Middle East trade routes. Wood Mackenzie has increased its 2026-2028 copper supply disruption assumptions as confidence in near-term mine recovery timelines declines.”
Sulfuric Acid Shortages Raise Costs for Oxide Copper Projects
“J.P. Morgan Global Research estimates that China’s May 2026 halt on sulfuric acid exports affects about 15% of global copper production that depends on acid-based processing, while spot sulfuric acid prices in Chile have risen to approximately $400 per tonne, increasing operating costs for oxide leach projects.”
“More than 200K metric tons moved into the U.S. in July, the biggest monthly inflow in at least 12 years, ahead of President Trump’s coming decision on tariffs on refined imports,” Bloomberg reported Monday.
“The flows have accelerated even after a June 30 deadline for Commerce Secretary Lutnick to recommend action on tariffs passed without an announcement, and the White House has not added clarity on when Trump will decide on refined copper tariffs.”
“Official Comex inventories have jumped more than 40% YTD to a record, while the total U.S. copper hoard is widely estimated at well above 1M tons.”
Hopefully, we don’t see a knee-jerk reaction to any copper tariff news, if it does surface, like we did in July of 2025, but anything is possible in these markets.
While copper remains strong due to robust fundamentals, it is not immune from short-term volatility along the journey.
The medium to longer-term supply/demand fundamentals for copper are undeniably entering a major pinch-point over the next few years and that will likely last for the next decade. From that vantage point, it really is no surprise to see copper prices ripping to all time highs over the last couple years.
What is stunning is how many generalist investors, and even resource investors, still have no exposure to the copper mining stocks despite this megatrend staring them right in face. This is not even a crowded trade like A.I. stocks or space stocks, and in the realm of commodities it is a sector that only gets a fraction of the participation seen in gold, or silver, or oil stocks. In many ways it is an opportunity that is hiding in plain sight.
We’ve spent the last couple years here on this channel highlighting how well the copper producers have done when viewed through the lens of sector ETFs, and also flagging compelling opportunities in the quality copper developers and explorers.
(COPX) moved up over 3X from the April 2025 low of $30.77 to the January 2026 high of $99.99 {just one copper penny shy of $100}. That was solid leverage by the copper producers held inside of this ETF to the copper price.
However, since that January 2026 of $99.99, (COPX) has been in a messy, whipsaw, sideways range-bound trading pattern, bouncing of key moving average support and resistance, frustrating bulls and bears alike.
(COPX) has not leveraged the moves in the underlying copper price to all-time highs over the last few months, which is a curious disconnect and market inefficiency.
Resource investors that got positioned in some of the quality copper developers over the last couple years have seen many of those stocks perform quite well; actually leveraging the moves in the underlying copper price as it ratcheted higher and higher.
·
Apr 19
Copper is referred to as Doctor Copper because it serves as a reliable economic indicator; where rising copper prices typically signal a growing economy, while falling prices suggest economic slowdowns or recessions. This nickname reflects copper’s ability to forecast economic health based on its widespread use in various industries.
Opportunities in Copper Explorers and Developers – Part 6
Jul 9
We are back with another update with opportunities for investing in copper explorers and developers. It’s been a while since we’ve done an update here in the junior copper resource space; but there have been some key recent news releases in some of the portfolio positions here, as well as some insightful recent interviews with the management teams of se…
Even bulled-up precious metals investors or die-hard energy sector investors can surely find some overlap and common ground, considering Dr. Copper’s many identities, as a base metal, energy metal, and critical mineral.
Thanks for reading and may you have prosperity in your trading and in life!
Shad
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.