Trump’s War with Iran and the El Ninõ Equals Massive Food Inflation

Clearly, inflation in the U.S. and globally is increasing. Trump’s war with Iran obviously has increased the price of oil, gas and diesel. This means of course that all the food delivered to grocery stores will cost more due to the increase costs for the companies that truck it to the stores. Then, due to the war is the dramatic increase in the price of fertilizer. The price of fertilizer has roughly increased by 50 to 80% at the planting season for at least the northern hemisphere. This will result in increased prices for all food grown from the ground.

Now, with El Ninõ coming in 2026 and 2027, there will be the climate crisis adding to inflation. All the droughts, floods, and fires will have an effect on agricultural output.

I wrote about this Super El Ninõ here:

It is About to Get Hotter

·

Jul 3

I have written a couple of times about the possible silver lining of Trump’s War with Iran. I wrote this and a bit later, this column. I have also written about how stupid/wrong side of history the Trump Administration is on the climate crisis. If you are going to start a war that will cut off the global oil supplies and increase dramatically the price …

2024 was the hottest year in recorded history. There was an El Ninõ that year that triggered the heat. The coming 2026 and 2027 El Ninõ is expected to make at least 2027 warmer than 2024. Even 2026 will become one of the three or four hottest years in recorded history.

The record-breaking heat in 2024 did significantly affect the global agricultural output. There was livestock experiencing heat stress which resulted in less meat and milk. Europe, South America, Asia and North America all had lower agricultural output due to it being the hottest year on record. It is expected that 2027 will be hotter than 2024 and 2026 might be close. So we will have less food in the world during the next 18 months. Scarcity brings inflation.

So here is what will probably happen. Food, globally, will cost a lot more in the next 18 months because of:

-the increased cost of shipping food to stores

-the scarcity of food due to lower crop yields due to lack of fertilizer

-the scarcity of food due to the expected El Ninõ fueled record heat

-if in fact 2027 becomes the hottest year on record, then food prices will stay up in 2027 and may spill over into 2028

Shock and Awe at the grocery stores for sure.

So, the U.S. is time sensitive to the November mid-term elections and, yes a fall trip to the grocery store will be more expensive with each passing week. The new addition to the mix is the coming record El Ninõ, which as stated above, will be a new layer of inflation. The key thing to remember is that the brunt of El Ninõ will occur in 2027, which means that food inflation will bleed into 2028.

There might well be hunger and starvation globally by 2027 in the poorer countries of the world.

Share