Iran War Unstoppable

The US cannot simply pull out of the war unilaterally, because Iran is not stopping its attacks until it gets what it wants. If the US withdraws, the Strait of Hormuz would remain under tight control, and the Gulf states could still be targeted.

This means the Gulf states could be forced to attack Iran to end the hostilities against them. Personally, however, I think Iran would scale back its attacks in such a scenario, since forcing the US to pull back unilaterally would already be a victory.

Iran does not want to end the war without a solid deal, because it does not want to end up in a situation where it is attacked again. It has already experienced this. It agreed to a ceasefire and entered negotiations, yet was attacked during those negotiations, even when it was prepared to make significant concessions.

What does that tell Iran? That making deals with the US is worthless. That diplomacy is meaningless. That it will be attacked anyway whenever the US decides to. As a result, Iran does not want a “peace” that simply allows the US and Israel to regroup and strike again with greater force.

This is the problem with having a leader perceived as unreliable and without credibility running US policy. The previous Iran deal, which Iran had adhered to, was scrapped. Then Iran was bombed while negotiations for a new deal were ongoing. In other words, this has reinforced the perception that there is little value in making agreements with the US. It echoes historical patterns seen elsewhere, where agreements were made only to be broken when convenient.

Thus, for Iran to stop hostilities, it would need a deal it believes the US cannot easily back out of. That will be difficult to achieve.

Meanwhile, the Gulf states did not want these attacks in the first place. But now that they are happening—and now that they see how vulnerable they are to Iranian missile strikes—they are likely to insist that Iran be fully disarmed. They want peace, but not a peace in which Iran remains a constant threat. They believed they were protected by American radar systems and Patriot defenses. Now they know they are not. Even if the war ends, Iran could still threaten them at any time in the future.

Then there is the US, which also has no easy exit. If it withdraws now, it leaves behind a region where Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the free flow of oil tankers. Iran’s nuclear capabilities would remain, and the incentives to pursue nuclear weapons would likely increase. From Iran’s perspective, nuclear weapons may appear to be the only reliable deterrent against future US or Israeli attacks.

Secondly, the US would lose face. It would signal to the world that a relatively weaker power can push back against it. That would reduce the deterrent effect of US military power and weaken the credibility of future threats.

Opponents of the US would also gain a blueprint: use drones and target the global economy. Countries like Russia could benefit from this shift, as others might seek their support in such strategies, including intelligence and targeting assistance.

All of this means the US sees no easy way out. A withdrawal could be viewed as a major humiliation for US military power.

So where does that leave us?

I am concerned this could lead to a ground invasion. If air campaigns fail to achieve results and reopening the Strait becomes urgent, the US may feel compelled to escalate.

But a rushed and poorly planned ground invasion would likely fail. Would that lead to withdrawal? Probably not. Instead, it could increase pressure to stay, because leaving after failure would make the US appear weak. That could lead to further escalations, possibly even discussions of a draft.

At that point, political dynamics become crucial. A change in congressional control could limit funding and force a withdrawal. However, if a new administration inherits an ongoing war, it may also face pressure to continue, in order to avoid being seen as presiding over defeat.

Why would this war be so difficult to win?

It is true that Iran’s military capabilities could be significantly degraded. But Gulf state defenses could also be worn down, and within a month the US could face shortages of the precision munitions needed to counter drone attacks. So while Iran may struggle to prevent being bombed, the Gulf states could become increasingly vulnerable.

The US has no quick solution to this, since advanced weapons systems take time to produce. This is what could push it toward deploying ground forces.

In other words, this is a situation with no easy resolution.