Semi-Predicting the Cavaliers/Watson Resolution

My story went live on Wednesday morning at Bleacher Report: 3-Team NBA Trade Idea After Cleveland Cavaliers’ Failed LeBron James Pursuit. Later that day, news broke that the Denver Nuggets and Cavaliers were executing two of the three legs in my trade concept.

The final iteration included the LA Clippers, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets—my suggested Memphis Grizzlies sat this one out. My goal in these types of stories is to use available intel and a deep dive into the NBA’s 30 salary cap sheets to try and map out the direction teams will take to solve a concrete problem.

The issue was restricted free agent Peyton Watson needing a home, with the Nuggets facing an egregious luxury-tax burden to retain him. The buzz over the last month, after Denver didn’t aggressively pursue takers for Christian Braun and/or Cam Johnson (or if they did, were unable to find viable suitors), had the team and Watson’s representation searching for a sign-and-trade solution.

The Cavaliers, having agreed to send Dennis Schröder to the Hornets for Tre Mann, also had James Harden patiently waiting to re-sign as the franchise pursued wing depth like Jonathan Kuminga or Watson, with Max Strus the necessary player from Cleveland to get under the first apron.

The list of possible Strus suitors wasn’t long. None of the teams had enough cap room; his $16.7 million expiring salary for 2026-27 is larger than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, so that wouldn’t be a viable tool for a willing trade partners.

That left squads with a large enough trade exception and no tax or apron issues to take on a very solid player, likely for marginal compensation. That probably meant no for the Oklahoma City Thunder ($17.7 million for Lu Dort, pushing the team back over the second apron), Boston Celtics ($27.7 million for Anfernee Simons, which would have triggered a first-apron hard cap) and Milwaukee Bucks ($25.5 million for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but too close to the tax line), but maybe for the Hornets ($40.8 million for LaMelo Ball), Grizzlies ($28.9 million for Jaren Jackson Jr.), or the Clippers ($17 million for John Collins).

With LA recently signing Bradley Beal, while holding the restricted rights to Bennedict Mathurin, plus the pending investigation into Kawhi Leonard’s endorsement situation, I went with the well-below-the-tax Grizzlies.

The Clippers seem like they’ve moved on from Mathurin and are confident they’ll eventually execute the Leonard swap with the Toronto Raptors for Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick. They practically got Strus for free in the deal.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets pivoted to DeMar DeRozan to replace Watson, who would have pushed their tax bill over $240 million, not including any incentives Aaron Gordon and Johnson reach this year. Instead, Denver, with DeRozan at the minimum, should pay about $85 million. Whatever Watson is as a player, he’s not worth $175 million to the Nuggets ($155 million tax difference plus roughly $20 million in salary).

Cleveland, by flipping Mann to the Wizards for Cam Whitmore, whom they will waive and stretch, can get nearly $30 million in Harden's starting salary over three years. I’ve reported that Harden and the Cavs have a handshake deal in place since he was traded to Cleveland by the Clippers in February.

Much of the above was predictable by following the numbers to an answer with just a few choices. The Clippers were the ones to step up, instead of the Grizzlies.

My earliest memory, ahead of my lifelong love of hoops, was watching the Harlem Globetrotters in person as a kid. My folks took us multiple times, something I absolutely loved before I ever dreamt of making a career out of covering the sport.

The team has reached its 100th anniversary, founded in 1926—two full decades before the NBA.

To celebrate, bobbleheads are available for presale via the National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum. I’ll have at least one on my desk shortly!