Further energy price rises on the way driven by cost of gas

The latest projections from Cornwall Insight show that gas unit rates are set to rise from 6.29p per kWh last winter to around 7.9p from 1 October, up around 26% year on year and the highest level since early 2023. Electricity unit rates are being held roughly stable, helped by the Government cutting VAT on electricity.

Ofgem is lowering its estimate of how much energy a “typical” household uses, but on a like-for-like basis (the same assumed consumption as last year), bills are likely to be higher than last winter and hundreds of pounds above pre-crisis levels.

New research has revealed why energy use is falling, exposing a nationwide split in how households have responded to rising energy costs.

Since 2023, 36% of the public have cut their energy use through efficiency measures alone, while almost a third have cut back through more dangerous behaviours that indicate they cannot afford enough energy.

A spokesperson for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition commented:

“The reliable indicators of what is actually happening to household energy prices are the unit rates and standing charges and these latest predictions will be deeply worrying to households up and down the country.

“We’re now seeing energy consumption decline. Some reduction could be seen as a good thing, caused by better energy efficiency in people’s homes. But sadly, for many households, reductions in energy use have happened simply because people cannot afford to use as much energy as in the past.

“That means that some are demonstrating dangerous behaviours such as cutting back on washing and for one in ten members of the public, skipping hot meals to save on energy.

“Many people also told the researchers that they have borrowed money to pay for energy

“Meanwhile all this is set against a backdrop of energy firms posting in excess of £6 billion profits on their UK operations in 2026 alone.”

Frazer Scott, Chief Executive of Energy Action Scotland, said:

“It has always been hard to compare Ofgem’s ‘average’ household consumption levels with what a household actually needs to stay safe at recommended levels of thermal comfort.

“But if that typical figure has never matched safe consumption in the first place, then watching it fall tells its own story. It is not necessarily a sign that homes are becoming more efficient, it is a warning that people are being forced to use less than they safely should.”

Jonathan Bean, spokesperson for Fuel Poverty Action, added:

“Cutting the assumed consumption doesn’t make homes any warmer or bills any more affordable. It simply widens the gulf between the number the public sees and the amount people actually have to find to keep their homes warm in winter and cool in summer.”