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Critical events of the week
Two Earnings Reports to Watch This Week
Analog Devices (ADI) reports on Wednesday, August 19, at 7:00 a.m. ET, before the market opens. Its chips are used across industrial automation, cars, communications systems, energy infrastructure, and data centers.
Its orders and forward guidance can serve as an early signal for the entire industrial cycle. Strong demand could lift semiconductor and industrial stocks, while weak orders or rising inventories could warn of a broader slowdown and drag the sector lower.
Walmart (WMT) reports on Thursday, August 20, at 7:00 a.m. ET, before the market opens. Walmart serves roughly 280 million customers and members each week, making its sales, customer traffic, margins, and full-year guidance one of the clearest snapshots of the U.S. consumer. A warning that shoppers are cutting back could hit retailers, logistics companies, payment firms, and the broader market, while stronger guidance could reduce recession fears and support a wider risk-on move. This will impact the whole market.
FOMC Minutes
One event everyone should watch closely is the release of the July 28–29 FOMC minutes on Wednesday, August 19, at 2:00 p.m. ET. The minutes will provide a detailed summary of how Fed officials debated inflation, economic growth, and the case for raising interest rates. I do not expect a major policy surprise, but investors should watch how much support existed beyond the three officials who voted for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. A more hawkish reading could push Treasury yields higher and pressure stocks, while a softer reading could support the market.
Gold
In last week’s analysis, I outlined my forecast: gold must hold firm above the 200-day moving average. If it does, it could signal a move toward $4,500 per ounce or higher. Apparently, it is heading that way.
Don’t underestimate volatility. As I said before, the gold one direction all the way up market has gone, after the major pullback in January. So expect volatility, and look for a retest of $4,300 per ounce recently.
But the long-term forecast remains unchanged from last week’s analysis. In case you haven’t read it, you can read it here:
Semi and Memory Stocks
Back in June and July, I repeatedly said that Nvidia under $200 per share and Micron under $900 per share were gifts from Mother Nature. Now, those gifts are long gone.
I have shared my thoughts on memory stocks in detail across many articles, which you can check out on my homepage. The forecast remains unchanged. I will be releasing a deep dive on semiconductors and memory stocks this week on how local AI is going to boost those stocks again.
Personally, I am still heavily weighted in the RAM ETF. For the past month, I have been hedging, adding the hedge profits back into the shares to average down my cost. Today, I started to take some profit, but I am still heavily positioned: 20% of my options account is still in this ETF after I took some profit and trimmed half an hour ago, and I'll keep the rest of the shares rolling for the longer term. You’ll see more detailed plans down below in the trade book.
Geopolitical and economical risks
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