After a 33 points-per-game sophomore season in high school, Arenas classified up to the 2025 class and was instantly chosen for the McDonald’s All-American game. That’s been the main appeal of me taking a good look at his high school film before he enrolled at USC. The first season was always going to be a redshirt-esque campaign because of setbacks after two very unfortunate events.
In April 2025, Arenas suffered from injuries after a serious car crash. Hereafter, he tore his meniscus in July 2025 which led to a 6 to 8 month recovery period. He played for the Trojans in his freshman year, and it’s mostly been focusing on the flashes than putting any value to the production. This would have been the same if he were to be efficient with good numbers, because the sample size and the injury past makes things very unfeasible.
But Arenas is the type of prospect where you should not look at the numbers at all. The physical tools, offensive creativity with the much-wanted size and length makes it feasible that he has multiple NBA roles to grow into. A sustainable one and highlighting his future value is the main emphasis of this scouting report.
At 6-foot-6, Arenas is a wing-sized true guard. He has super-tight handles and plays with natural creativity. He has a strong core and moves very fluidly. Granted: he looked more comfortable before the injuries but I’m taking the post-injury recovery time into account here as well. He’s listed at 199 pounds. He has a decent first step but good lateral pace with good footwork that helps him to actively change his pace.
At a confirmed 7-foot wingspan, it’s another value riser for his physical profile. The best part is that he plays with a positive ‘F-you’ attitude. He’s tough and vocal and is purely creative in how he’s creating advantages. The vertical pop is decent, but the best attribute are the change of pace and his speed—especially when he’s fully recovered from all injury woes. Overall, teams are buying the physical tools as what they potentially can become after NBA strength and conditioning. Overall. it’s a definite value-riser for his profile.
Arenas has been playing under control too often during his freshman year. He didn’t look too comfortable sliding his feet while moving back laterally. However, he did well to be physical early in the process with the first play as an example—but when it came to the moments where the ball handler looked to stutter and drive past him, Arenas looked to hold back and slow to close the angles in both the first and second possessions. Regardless, the toughness makes up for it. The second play had him tag the screener well and use his arm to push-off and elevate his burst a bit. The third possession has him diving between the ball handler and screener to maintain his position to where he’s pushing into the ball handler before the lay-in finish, clearly unbalancing the scorer.
Despite the make in the fourth play, Arenas covered the ICE there very well. He slides his feet naturally and he’s using physicality early in the process to keep unbalancing scorers. We’ve seen him navigate through screens properly and that’s the main positive here. He’s also reliable when taking over assignments with him using his length and verticality to stretch his arms further to completely contest the weak-side off-the-dribble corner three. At 2.1 personal fouls he’s also completely in control. However, the last play led thim doing everything right until he got baited by the pump-fake while he had his shooter’s angles completely closed. The decision-making on that ends needs some work, but that’ll come naturally as he’ll get more quality reps and increased minutes in his sophomore campaign.
One of the issues in Arenas’ closeouts is that’s not fully closing out at 180 degrees of his opponent. He’s often leaving the lane toward the baseline open and that’s where he’s getting beaten in the first two plays below. The lateral pace is not the issue as the positioning is the main reason for the defensive collapsing in both occassions. That’s his main area of improvement for his sophomore campaign. The third possession has him closing out to the shooter whose feet had no positioning to where they’d attack the closeout. Therefore, jumping up to contest a potential shot wasn’t the best decision to make. Arenas’ feel for the game needs to improve as he has to recognize how the opponent’s feet are set to help him to make the best decision possible.
The fifth possession has him position his body good this time. He’s however not picking up the lateral pace as good as he should, as he also should have been more physical upon the drive to sustain that the scorer would lose his balance. He’s playing under control and isn’t forcing his body too much to risk a setback in terms of injuries. That’s the main context here. However, overall, the closeouts aren’t on a NBA quality yet. That’s not a red flag by any means at this stage of his career, but a lack of improvement on that end next season would be a reason for slight concern for the longer run.
Overall, Arenas does well as a team defender. He’s sometimes a step too slow in recognizing cuts like in the second possession. But the recognition of plays is there. Especially when it comes to incoming ball screens. The first play has him in the point-of-attack against a more experienced lead guard who where he navigates the pick well and keeps his positioning in a good spot. Overall, he’s beat for the and-one but he did everything well besides the lack of using his lateral pace at the end when the scorer drove to the paint. The third play is a testimony to how he’s recognizing space as the off-ball defender. He didn’t rush to fall back as he knew the backdoor cut would follow so he anticipated and closed the passing angle well that led to the well-earned steal and a transition opportunity. At a 1.9% steal rate as a freshman, he’s showing good returns with his 0.9 steals per game.
The fourth possesion has him again play the angles the right way. He’s showing signs of toughness in the process but as mentioned earlier the positioning and lack of pace when the driver gets to the paint is the main area where he’s losing his hard work with giving away scoring angles easier. The fifth play shows another example. I have no issues with that as of now, as NBA coaching staffs will help him to gradually improve as a team defender, especially in recognizing space. But as of now, the freshman campaign has shown vital flashes of what he can be, but not a feasible case where Arenas can be a plus defender early in his NBA career. The main expectation as of now is to sustain and improve his stock rates while Arenas show improvement in using his lateral pace when opponents pressure the rim against him.
At 14.1 points per game, the glaring lack of efficiency at a 34.1% field goal percentage is the main thing to ignore here. It has value, but the context of the injury past combined with Arenas clearly not being ready to fully carry the offense is what we must keep in mind. However, his successful high school career as a gifted scorer makes it more feasible we’ll see drastic improvements in his sophomore year. For this assessment, I’m looking at the flashes instead, rather than fully focusing on how Arenas made decisions out of the advantages he created as the pick-and-roll ball-handler—which will be one of his main tasks in the NBA.
The issue I have is that he's not playing the angles properly. At least during his freshman year. The first play has him driving into a tight pocket with no real idea and that’s leading to the live-ball turnover where the second possession had the angle to snake in the middle above the break but him settling for a unbalanced off-the-dribble three. The tight handles however are a big positive. He’s settling for too many jumpers off the dribble but the fourth play has him use his craft to get both feet in the paint. He’s battling hard and playing with extreme toughness to get the offensive board but the positioning of his feet has him unbalanced upon trying to lay the putback opportunity in. The fifth play has him use his change of pace and craft to again fight his way to the paint with a well-timed finish that missed.
Granted—i’m focusing on the misses here because I want to see the areas of improvement for his sophomore campaign. However, at a 44.0% rim-finishing rate on 50 attempts the sample size shows that he’s taking lots of tough attempts which is the main sign of him trying to force things on offense this past season. The level of composure has to improve.
At 21.3% on 4.4 three-point attemps per game, the numbers were underwhelming this past season. However, there are some positives in his shot process to highlight here. He sets his feet quickly and the shooting motion is consistent. However, he’s not fully balancing his body and rising up fluidly. The release looks too early as well, with the first two plays showing good examples. The tricky part is that the release is too late in the third play so the release point on his jumpers is the main area to focus on. Another area is that he’s not fully relocating for a potential offensive board as he looks to return on defense while the second and third shots show possibilities of a high rebound instead. The feel and recognition to when rush back or commit to crash the offensive glass is another area to work on for him during his sophomore campaign—especially considering that it’s not a given that his three-point percentage with drastically improve in year two.
The other side of the coin is that he’s moving tremendously without the ball. The fourth and fifth plays shows good examples to where he relocates to the passer’s angle and then sets his feet to perfection. He’s perfectly in balance and the mechanics look good. Considering that shots off the catch has to be above-average in the NBA to sustain his role it becomes more clear that the shooting woes in his freshman campaign come mainly in the process of his relocation. If that becomes more consistent, I’m more than confident to say that his jumper will translate at the NBA level.
At 29 assists to 32 turnovers it’s mixed feelings at first sight. However, Arenas has shown serious flashes of creativity and execution as a pick-and-roll playmaker for others. He’s had a heavy on-ball role so the 2.3 turnovers per game aren’t as bad as it may seem at first sight. The 12.8% turnover rate is the result of the double coverage he’s seeing when he’s driving to the rim. So the creativity, handles and exploiting gaps and angles in the defense has been my main focus in evaluating his playmaking potential. The main appeal here is that Arenas knows he’ll face two defenders. So passing out of these to find the advantage is the main focus and the first two plays show good examples of that—the extra value is that we’re seeing composure here as well.
The fourth play was a read executed to perfection. The handles to where he’s using the behind-the-back to open the passing angle for the double paint touch are the flashes of excellence we want to see from a potential lottery pick. He’s also reliable as a ball-mover with the fifth play showing a good example of him selling the closeout attack before the cross pass to the open shooter on the weak side occurs. The passing accuracy is another positive with the full-court dime immediately after they concede a basket in the last play. Overall, we haven't seen enough of a sample size of his passing and playmaking game so far, as that’s one of my main areas of focus for his sophomore campaign.
I’m super-intrigued about what Arenas can turn into. The double injuries in 2025 are a huge context that every NBA scout needs to take into account. The numbers aren’t reflecting what he is and can become, nor is it a quality sample size. Therefore, diving into the film is even more important. That’s always my number one priority, but extra in this particular case. He has future All-Star written all over him with the physical tools being the main separator as of now, while he’s showing clear flashes of excellence as a ball handler.
Positioning issues on defense with too late/early releases on his jumpers on offense were my early red flags. However, nothing leads to a sign where he can’t improve it in his sophomore year. Efficiency is the name of the game for him, as the question of what he can become was clear as day during his high school career already. Now it’s time to turn that into knowing how to maximize his game and his play so sustain and improve a team’s offensive rating as the main creator while his team defense can help sustain the defensive rating. Overall, I’m more than confident that Arenas won’t return for his junior year as he’s a clear lottery pick for the 2027 NBA Draft. I personally think he’ll end up going in the top ten as the first or second non-freshman to have his name called by the commissioner on draft night.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.