Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
from Politico today, Douglas Holtz-Eakin: “If the bright-line definition of socialism is owning the means of production, then yeah, [the president is] there,” Truer words were never spoken. Holtz-Eakin is head of American Action Forum, formerly director of the CBO, formerly professor at Syracuse University. Documentation, here.
Maybe: Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors (blue, left log scale), and investment in informationn equipment and software (red, right log scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 advance release, and author s calculations. Over this period, one can reject at the 6% level the null hypothesis that the growth rate of [ ]
The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), GDPNow of 8/14 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 8/14 (red triangle), GS tracking of 8/14 (purple +), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2026Q2 advance, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, GS, Philadelphia Fed, and author s calculations.
standardized measures: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.
Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), freight services index (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink),…
From Milwaukee Courier, Natalie Yahr for Wisconsin Watch: “Concern about prices rising is not just prices rising, but it’s against the backdrop of how fast wages are rising. How many people are keeping up, and what components of the population are keeping up?” Chinn said. So without ado: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using [ ]
From CBO. Source: CBO. Notes: Solid light purple is FY2024, solid dark purple is FY2025, dashed black is FY2026 estimate for cumulative deficit. As of 2026Q2, we re nearly a percentage point above full employment, according to CBO s estimate of potential GDP. Shouldn t the deficit be shrinking, rather than increasing, as a share of GDP?
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI: Figure 1: CPI (blue), CPI-wage earners and clerical workers (purple), chained CPI (green), AIER Everyday Price index (light red), all in logs 2025M01=0. 2025M08 CPI observation is Cleveland Fed nowcast of 8/12, EPI observation is forecast from first differences regression using CPI, GASREGW. [ ]
CES estimates are for lackluster growth, while the trend in CPS measure is somewhat worrying.
+30K +78K Bloomberg consensus.