East Bay & Down Ballot

Vol. VI, No. 1,348

🗓️84 days to November General Election / 🗓️7 days to CA14 Special Election

—No need to bet on Polymarket or Kalshi. The results of eight of the nine state and federal races in the East Bay this fall are almost certain to favor incumbents.

East Bay Assemblymembers Buffy Wicks, Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, Mia Bonta, Liz Ortega, and Alex Lee can begin preparing for 2027. Likewise, the open 10th State Senate District race between Union City Democrat Scott Sakakihara and South Bay Republican Linda Price appears settled.

In Washington, Reps. Ro Khanna, Lateefah Simon, and Mark DeSaulnier should expect another two years in Congress.

The lone uncertainty is the fourth round of Aisha Wahab versus Melissa Hernandez in the CA14 race to replace disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell. The November matchup is for a chance to serve a full two-year term. If Wahab wins Round 3 on Aug. 18 by a large margin, the November re-re-rematch could be a sleepy affair.

—But below the marquee races, the East Bay’s November ballot is packed with contests that will quietly shape how residents get around, how they pay for water, the management of public parks, and who oversees local community colleges and hospitals.

Five AC Transit board seats are up for election, although only three are competitive, while BART will see at least one new board member after a San Francisco incumbent decided not to seek another term.

Water district politics could prove especially contentious, with Fremont Councilmember Yang Shao taking on an Alameda County Water District incumbent and a high-profile challenge brewing against East Bay MUD Director April Chan.

Community college races are also drawing attention. Conservative candidates are targeting multiple Chabot-Las Positas Community College District seats, Fremont political circles are watching a race involving the wife of Mayor Raj Salwan, and several longtime incumbents across the region suddenly find themselves facing challengers.

Open seats at the East Bay Regional Park District and Livermore Area Recreation and Park District have attracted crowded candidate fields, while healthcare district races are largely uneventful, with most incumbents running unopposed.

—Below the paywall, East Bay Insiders breaks down every contested race—from transit and water boards to parks, colleges, and healthcare districts—and explains where the real political intrigue will unfold this November.

Share East Bay Insiders Newsletter

Give a gift subscription

• ELECTION 2026: Full Breakdown of the East Bay’s Down Ballot November Races

• CA14: Polymarket Swings Back to Predicting a Wahab Win in November

• Who Pulled Papers to Run in November? Here’s Monday’s Extended Deadline List

• CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Federal Form 6 48-Hour Contribution Filings and State Form 497 Large Campaign Contributions Filed on Aug. 10