Vol. VI, No. 1,353
🗓️CA14 Special Election Day
—Residents in the East Bay’s 14th District could know the identity of their next congressmember tonight.
The polls close at 8 p.m. tonight, which the first batch of results arriving sometime within the hour.
Under 15 percent of mail-in ballots have been received by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters office, as of Saturday. Keep an eye out for voter fatigue in this race. It’s the third time these set of voters have weighed in on the CA14 race since June 2.
The registrars’ office anticipates updates to Tuesday night’s set of results on Friday, Aug. 21, followed by a final update on Wednesday, Aug. 26, and certification of the vote on Friday, Aug. 28.
That’s means the winner of the CA14 special election could be sworn into Congress in early September and serve the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term through December.
Can $6 million erase a 26-point deficit? Hernandez lost badly twice. Tonight tests whether massive outside spending changed the race.
Watch the early-versus-late vote. Early returns could favor Hernandez, while later ballots may reveal a backlash to the advertising barrage.
The pressure is on Hernandez. She needs a win or a dramatically smaller margin to show the spending worked.
A third Wahab win changes November. Another decisive victory would make their fourth matchup look increasingly predetermined.
Money changed the perception of the race. Spending transformed Wahab from dominant frontrunner into perceived underdog without a single new vote being counted.
Grassroots versus outside money. Wahab’s late surge of grassroots energy will be tested against Hernandez’s enormous financial advantage.
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