The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy

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https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122987 <-- shared paper

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H/T @Luciano Pavesi | PhD, Post Doctoral Researcher presso Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata Costruzioni Idrauliche

“What has driven flood risk in Italy ? And what will drive it in the future?

This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of how population and climate change have shaped flood risk in Italy across 230 years, from 1870 to 2100.

The analysis disentangles their relative contributions and reveals a clear transition: historical risk was mainly driven by population growth and migration into flood-prone areas, whereas climate change is projected to become the dominant future driver. By 2050, its contribution to increasing flood risk could be approximately three times greater than that of population change.

A declining population does not necessarily mean declining risk. As flood-prone areas expand, population may decrease in currently exposed areas while increasing in places not considered at risk today.

These dynamics vary substantially across space, highlighting the value of national and regional analyses for understanding where flood risk is changing and supporting targeted adaptation…”

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“ABSTRACT: Among European countries, Italy ranks as one of the most susceptible to flood risk. While this figure is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas have been identified as the two main drivers expected to elevate the number of individuals at risk. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these two drivers of flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100, focusing on how they interact to increase risk. Using the large-scale flood risk model RESCUE-FR, [the authors] analyze[d] the population at risk under the 200-year return period scenario to provide a targeted assessment of population risk, how it has evolved in the past, and its projection in the future. [Their] findings indicate that while historical flood risk in Italy has primarily been influenced by population growth and migration into at-risk areas, future projections suggest that climate change will become the dominant driver of flood risk.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Italy is one of the European countries most at risk of flooding. This study examines the impact of two risk factors on flood risk in Italy over the long term, from 1870 to 2100: climate change and the evolution of population in areas prone to flooding. Using a large-scale flood risk model, [they] simulated different scenarios for different time periods, such as with and without climate change, to estimate how each factor contributes to the number of people exposed to floods in the past and future. [Their] results show that population growth and migration into flood-prone areas were the main reasons for the increased risk in the past. In the future, however, climate change is likely to become the dominant factor, putting more people at risk. Understanding how these factors interact can help communities to plan more effectively for floods and reduce the number of people affected…”

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