Potential for U.S. Agriculture to Be Greenhouse Gas Negative - CAST
My gut says there are just a lot of economic factors that determine whether GHG emissions will actually decrease. For example, if fertilizer prices drop, farmers apply more N, negating other gains in efficiency. They too mention that:
The barriers to achieving U.S. agricultures potential reduction levels are:
Adoption
Demonstration of impact across different parts of field and farming areas
Policy to support practice adoption
Technical support to assist producers in changing crop or animal production systems (Antle and Capalbo, 2023).
And since some current conservation practices still have low adoption after decades of education and payments, I suspect more realistically we'll only see one or two percentage points drop.
Economic costs of wind erosion in the United States
By adopting published estimates and calculating emerging costs, we estimate that wind erosion and dust in the United States cost $154.4 billion annually (2017 value)
Tracing the thoughts of a large language model \ Anthropic

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