Interest Rates, Budget Deficits, and AI
My Sunday brain dump of things I am thinking about that are important for investors
Dr. John Rutledge: Asset-First Economics
Complex Systems in Economics and Finance Made Simple for Investors
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Things Kevin Warsh Needs to Know
Inflation is higher, real incomes lower than reports show. Scrap the dotplot and forward guidance. Ignore the macro models. There is no neutral rate. The Fed doesn't print oil, copper, or potash.
Sorry, Kevin. Fun Fact: The Fed Can't Print Oil.
Tough first day at work. April inflation 4%. Growth fading. The FOMC meets in 3 weeks. Politicizing the Fed would be a disaster. It won't take long for us to learn which team he's playing for.
Join our live podcast tomorrow noon EST, 9AM PST to talk real estate and private equity
Looking forward to working with Joel and my partner Vin Pica. Hope you can be there.
Asset-First Economics Update. We are not going broke.
The Q4/25 U.S. Balance Sheet—the Most Important Report You've Never Heard About.
Rethinking Real Rates
Through the lens of Asset-First Economics. Central banks using the wrong measure of real interest rates cause great damage. How the BOJ triggered Japan's Lost Decade.
The Only Report Investors Need to Read
Asset-First Economics, the U.S. Balance Sheet
The Physics Behind Asset-First Economics
Listen now (15 mins) | Far-from-equilibrium thermodynamics, phase transitions, and financial crises
Asset-First Economics
A primer on the ideas behind Asset-First Economics and what they mean for investors
Asset-Based Economics, The Back Story
Tangible Assets, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Far From Equilibrium Economics